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CAN'T FIND SOMETHING? |
2010 business outlook for B.C.: Optimism tempered with cautionTop negatives in BIV/Ipsos poll include the HST and looming public-sector labour negotiations; top positives range from the 2010 Games and lower taxesAndrew Petrozzi In one of the most comprehensive reviews of its kind, the 2010 BIV-Ipsos business confidence survey has found Lower Mainland business leaders to be optimistic about 2010, but up against some significant challenges this year. With more than 1,040 participating in this year’s survey, the results are indicative of what’s happening in B.C.’s business community, according to Steve Mossop, president, market research, Canada West for Ipsos. He said that with 61% of respondents expecting improved sales in the next 12 months and 56% anticipating higher profits, confidence is trending toward pre-recession levels. However, pessimism still surrounds employment and capital expenditures, with just 34% and 32%, respectively, projected to improve in the next 12 months. “We’re on the right path, but we still haven’t recovered,” said Mossop. Sixty-one per cent of respondents expect B.C.’s economic activity to increase in the next 12 months; 20% felt it would remain the same. More than a third (36%) felt that the provincial labour climate was better compared with the same time least year, while 32% said it was unchanged. However, 28% indicated it had gotten worse. One major cloud on the horizon for respondents is the impact of public-sector contract negotiations coming up in 2010: 67% said they’ll have a negative impact on the province’s current labour climate. While almost one-third of respondents (31%) felt that government stimulus packages would have no impact on the provincial economy in 2010, 57% said they would have a positive impact. Lower interest rates (72%) and lower federal (70%) and provincial (69%) taxes were identified as positives for business, but only 45% said federal government stimulus packages would have a positive impact on their business; 50% said they would have no impact. Forty-three per cent of respondents said the 2010 Winter Olympic Games would have a positive impact on business, 32% said they would have no impact and 25% said they would have a negative impact. “It’s pretty clear that the business community is supportive of the Winter Games,” Mossop said, “but it is not universal.” According to the survey, the biggest negative issues facing B.C.’s business community in 2010 are: •the U.S. economy (49%); •the HST (48%); •tighter border security (45%); and •public-sector contract negotiations this year (43%). While controlling health-care costs (90%) and investing in innovation (82%) and infrastructure (80%) were identified by respondents as the top three provincial government priorities, increasing spending on education and research (79%) and reducing the government’s budget deficit (78%) were also top of mind. Other priorities such as better environmental protection (69%) and promoting efforts to reduce industry impact on climate change (66%) slipped from the top 10 concerns identified in 2008. “We’ve always noticed in polling, when things are bad, things like environmentalism go down the agenda. It happened in the early ’90s and it happened again now.” While acknowledging the drop, Mossop stressed that at least two-thirds of respondents still consider environmental issues a government priority. Politically, the BC Liberals appear to have taken a heavy hit in support among B.C. business leaders, with just 52% approving of the government’s performance compared with 75% in 2008. Disapproval has more than doubled to 43% from 21% previously. “It’s completely the HST backlash,” according to Mossop. “There is a massive level of discontent on that one issue.” Opinions on Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson’s administration are equally divided: 37% approve, 36% disapprove. Despite Robertson’s seemingly low level of support, it represents a 10% increase compared with the approval rating of former mayor Sam Sullivan’s administration, which garnered only a 27% approval rating in the 2008 BIV/Ipsos poll. Support for Stephen Harper’s federal Conservatives slipped to 52% compared with 63% two years ago. Respondents pointed to the HST as the top challenge facing B.C. businesses over the next 12 months. One-third of respondents (33%) identified government-related issues as the top concern, with the HST topping the list. Business issues (18%) including competitiveness and labour (17%), particularly unemployment, were also highlighted. U.S.-related issues (13%) and the 2010 Winter Olympic Games (11%) were also noted. “Huge relief and optimism exist,” Mossop said of the survey results. “On the horizon we can almost see the rebound picking up to pre-recession levels. But the cautious areas on the horizon [such as] employment, capital expenditures and all the issues facing business from the U.S. economy to tighter border security, exchange rates, HST, are all potential derailers. It’s optimistic, but there are new clouds on the horizon that they have to contend with.” • apetrozzi@biv.com Download the charts as a Powerpoint presentation here. This article from Business in Vancouver Februrary 2-8, 2010; issue 1058 Business in Vancouver (www.biv.com) has been publishing in-depth local business news, analysis and commentary since 1989. The newspaper also produces a weekly ranked list of the biggest companies and players in a wide range of B.C. industries and commercial sectors, monthly features and industry-focused sections that arm its subscribers with a complete package of local business intelligence each week. |
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