TD Economics has projected B.C.’s annual real GDP growth 2016 to 2021 at 2.3%, third behind Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The report honed in on this timeframe as TD estimates it will take about three to four years for the economy to fully heal from the 2008-09 economic crisis.
Tied with Ontario, B.C.’s showing is attributable to above-average labour supply growth, helped in part by a large share of immigrants who choose to settle in the two provinces.
The report indicated that while B.C.’s placement on the provincial growth ladder has not changed considerably, its absolute growth rate is set to decrease by about half a percentage point.
Statistics Canada figures from 1990 to 2007 show B.C.’s real annual GDP per capita growth at 1.2%. TD’s projection for 2016 to 2021 puts that figure at only 0.8%.
“Put another way, there will be fewer new resources per person with which to support higher living standards,” said the report.
Factoring in population changes and economic growth, the report indicates that because B.C. is set to record only modest economic growth, along with modest population growth, the two factors will cancel each other out.