Both the number of homes sold and the average price are expected to drop overall this year in Greater Vancouver, according to a British Columbia Real Estate Association forecast published June 19, but 2018 will see both of these measures bounce back.
This year, according to the association’s forecast, approximately 36,500 homes are expected to change hands in the region; this is an almost 11% drop compared with 2016. In 2018, 38,400 homes are forecast to be sold – an increase of more than 5% compared with this year’s forecast. The average selling price is anticipated to fall below the $1,000,000 mark, dropping 3.6% from $1,017,228 last year to around $980,790 in 2017. In 2018, the average selling price is expected to rise more than 4% to around $1,022,000.
Across B.C. as a whole, the number of homes sold is expected to drop 10% to 101,030 units, from last year’s record 112,209 units. The number is expected to slip another 0.5% in 2018.
This year, the average B.C. home sale price is expected to drop because of an increasing demand for less expensive home types, such as condos. As well, a larger share of home sales is taking place outsider of the Greater Vancouver area, pushing average prices down further. The BCREA forecasts the average selling price will slip 1.1% this year, reaching $683,500 from $691,100 last year. In 2018, prices are expected to increase more than 5% to around $719,000.
“The province is in its fourth year of above-trend economic growth,” said BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir. “Strong employment growth, consumer confidence and an influx of inter-provincial migrants are important drivers of the housing market this year.”
Muir said as more young British Columbians enter their “household-forming years,” demand for condos is increasing, placing pressure on the supply of this home type.