It’s hard to see any glimmers of economic light ahead with so many dark data clouds rolling in daily during the Great Lockdown.
But there are some – especially for the innovative and nimble. The data got very dark at the tail end of April. Central 1’s B.C. economic analysis led the way with a grim forecast for the province’s 2020 financial prospects.
Its projections included B.C.’s economy shrinking 7.3%, retail sales dropping at least 12% and home sales sinking 30%. It also sees tourism, traditionally a top B.C. economic performer, locked in the deep freeze.
Meanwhile, a global report from research firm TransUnion noted that the household incomes of 76% of people between the ages of 26 and 40 have been seriously eroded by the global pandemic. So this year’s April showers of data were uniformly dreary and depressing. But Central 1 conceded that B.C.’s economy is expected to outperform the Canadian average over the next year, however low that bar might be.
COVID-19’s hammer blows to economies around the world have also seriously shocked the global energy system. Electricity demand, for example, has fallen by a staggering 20% and is forecast to record its largest drop since the Great Depression, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The environmental upside to that reduced energy demand has been a corresponding decrease in global carbon dioxide emissions. The IEA’s report also notes that the Great Lockdown is driving “a major shift towards low-carbon sources of electricity, including wind, solar PV, hydropower and nuclear.”
The opportunity here is increased investment now in developing energy efficiencies, power storage and renewable technologies as demand grows for all of the above. B.C. is well positioned to be a leader in servicing the demand for renewable energy innovation and the promise of restarting economies with cleaner energy options. That could provide at least some light in the prevailing pandemic gloom.
