Wins for B.C. in the natural gas major leagues require a new game plan.
Premier Christy Clark’s optimistic swing for the fences with multiple liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals has long since become delinked from global economic and energy realities.
Base hits are now far more realistic and could deliver longer-lasting benefits for B.C.
Analysts cited in last week’s Business in Vancouver pointed out that the first window of opportunity for Clark’s home run swing has closed. The next is not set to open this decade, and delivery of Canadian LNG into the wider world likely won’t happen until 2025 at the earliest (“No final investment decisions on B.C. gas until decade’s end, experts say” – Business in Vancouver issue 1408; October 25-31).
The window of opportunity for other natural gas markets, however, is open now. For example, the market for substituting natural gas for more carbon-heavy transportation fuels like diesel and bunker oil that power freighters is large and getting larger.
The International Maritime Organization has committed to instituting a tighter cap on the allowable sulphur content of fuel oil burned in ships. Its implementation will accelerate global demand for cleaner fuel and fuel technologies.
In its most recent CO2 Emissions Trends report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that transportation now generates 23% of global carbon emissions, and those emissions have jumped 71% since 1990. The road sector is the main transportation emissions driver, but the IEA report points out that, between 1990 and 2014, the marine and aviation sectors increased emissions 69% and 95%, respectively. Regions that develop the fuel sources and technologies that can reduce those emission spikes will be the long-term economic winners.
B.C. could be among them if it shifts focus from reliance on multibillion-dollar LNG terminal long shots to smaller, more economically viable options such as natural-gas-to-gasoline refineries.
