November’s upshift in wage earnings from October likely raised an eyebrow or two given the contrast with broad labour market weakness, but unless incoming data proves otherwise, this was merely a blip in B.C.’s underlying pattern of soft wage inflation.
Average weekly earnings in B.C. rose to a seasonally adjusted $892 in November, marking a 1.7% increase from October.
The monthly gain compared favourably with the national performance of less than 1%, but year-over-year growth was soft at 1.7% and below the national pace of 2.8%.
Meanwhile, November’s bump also couldn’t salvage a disappointing year for employees hoping for positive pay traction. Through the first 11 months of last year, year-to-date average weekly earnings were up a scant 1%, falling well short of the near 2% national increase.
Weak topline growth was not universal with significant gains of above 4% for forestry-related workers and utilities workers. However, most sectors experienced weak growth and the few employment gains were in relatively lower-paying sectors.
The stagnant labour market is making the job markets over the Rockies ever more alluring to some. Earnings in Alberta and Saskatchewan have far outpaced B.C. over the past decade even after accounting for higher inflation. Average weekly earnings were 25% higher in Alberta and 8% higher in Saskatchewan. In 2001, Saskatchewan earnings were about 10% below those in B.C.
The effect of this yawning interprovincial gap in wages is already evident as residents have chosen with their feet. B.C. has seen an exodus to our Prairie neighbours, particularly Alberta, losing almost 12,000 more people than we gained in 2013.
While this net outflow is expected to narrow as the economy picks up and wage gaps tighten with the start of major resource projects, B.C. will continue to lose residents to the Prairies over the next few years.
For B.C. this outflow limits population and economic growth in the province and marks a loss of human capital that is difficult to replace. •
