A report in the magazine Nature saying that the rate of deforestation in Indonesia has overtaken that in Brazil points to a critical fault line in the country's political and economic structure that will hobble the new president to be elected this week.
Jakarta governor Joko Widodo and his rival for the presidency, former army general Prabowo Subianto, have made environmental protection, food security and infrastructure construction the main planks of their economic policies. But in the 16 years since the ouster of dictator president Suharto, a political structure has evolved that makes it near impossible for the central administration in Jakarta to effectively pursue national economic policies.
In a recent essay in Foreign Affairs journal, United Kingdom-based Indonesia specialist Elizabeth Pisani says that, from having one of the most centralized administrations under president Suharto, the country has gone to having one of the most decentralized. Pisani points out that with 250 million people from 300 ethnic groups, speaking 700 languages and living on 7,000 islands, Indonesia is the most diverse nation on earth. But with the advent of democracy after 1998, East Timor opted for independence and there were active separatist movements in Aceh and Papua provinces.
To prevent the breakup of the country, Jakarta decided to bypass the provinces as providers of government services and to deal directly with rural districts and municipalities. Jakarta now passes more than a quarter of its $105 billion tax revenue to the districts without any directions about how they should use it to provide social services.
One result, says Pisani, is that the number of accredited districts has increased by over 70% since Suharto left office, to the point that Jakarta is no longer sure how many there are. Meanwhile, the districts and municipalities have become the fiefdoms of local strongmen, who run electoral and administrative machines based on patronage and corruption. Their vision, of course, extends only to the boundaries of their territory, with the result that it is increasingly difficult for the government in Jakarta to pursue any nationwide economic or social policies.
Deforestation is a case in point. For years Jakarta has been trying to put a brake on deforestation by companies, many of them foreign, and operations connected to the Indonesian military. Cutting ancient hardwood forests is the first step in creating palm oil plantations to feed the global fad for biofuels.
Jakarta's curbs have been unsuccessful because all the officials responsible for stopping illegal logging are based in the districts and come under the sway of local strongmen. A 2012 study found that when new districts were created, illegal logging increased by 8% within their boundaries.
The study published by Nature magazine last week says that Indonesia overtook Brazil in 2012 in the deforestation stakes. Indonesia cleared 8,400 square kilometres of forested land that year against Brazil's 4,600 square kilometres. About 80% of this logging is illegal, says the study, and the resulting plantations have made Indonesia the world's largest producer of palm oil.
A further result of Indonesia's decentralization, says Pisani, is that rural districts and municipalities have become overburdened with civil servants, who are often incompetent. Each of these local administrations has departments of health, education, the environment, fisheries and dozens more. Jobs in these departments and associated functions such as teaching are highly sought after and frequently acquired through bribery by people with no qualifications.
One spinoff is that unqualified teachers are creating dysfunctional students. A study in 2012 found that three-quarters of Indonesia's 15-year-olds did not know enough math or science to function adequately in a modern economy.
From the start of the campaign for the July 9 Indonesian presidential election the contest has been Joko Widodo’s to lose – and recent polls suggest he may do just that.
For most of the campaign, the charismatic governor of Jakarta known as Jokowi has enjoyed a more than 25-point lead, based on his reputation for honesty, probity and getting things done. But recent polls show Jokowi’s lead being cut to only three or four points in the face of a surging campaign by controversial former army general Prabowo Subianto.
Jokowi’s campaign has suffered from lack of enthusiastic support from power brokers in the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, for which he is the candidate. He only recently joined the party and many of the party’s leaders fear being sidelined.
Jokowi has also suffered from a rumour campaign claiming he is ethnic Chinese and a Christian, even though he has conclusively proved these rumours to be untrue. Over 88% of Indonesia’s 250 million people are Muslims, and there is great suspicion of ethnic Chinese, who are often accused of controlling the economy.
Prabowo’s campaign is widely believed to have started these rumours. Indeed, Prabowo, as commander of the Army Strategic Reserve in 1998, arranged a deadly mob attack on Chinese businesses in Jakarta, claiming the Chinese were responsible for the 1997-98 Asian economic crisis.
As a result of this and other human rights abuses, Prabowo was fired from the military. He has used his links to Indonesia’s elite to build a business empire.
