B.C. retailers can expect a 1.7% year-over-year increase in their December sales but will see sales gains trail other Canadian provinces, according to forecast numbers released this morning by global real estate services company Colliers International.
Colliers is forecasting an average December retail sales increase of 3.9% across the Canada, led by a 7.6% increase in Saskatchewan and a 4.6% increase in Alberta.
James Smerdon, director of retail and strategic planning for Colliers in Canada noted that while B.C. can anticipate a retail gain in December, the province’s retail sales have lagged this year and are forecast to slip by 0.3% relative to 2010 figures.
He attributed some of that lag to questions about the future of HST.
“As the model is based on data from the first half of the year, I think B.C. particularly was in a period of questioning what was going to happen with the provincial sales tax and I think there was probably a delay of spending on some of the larger consumer goods.”
Smerdon said that this is the second year Colliers has put together forecast data, based on a model that looks at historical spending patterns.
He said that while there were some discrepancies between last year’s forecasts and actual spending, particularly in smaller provinces, the forecasts were generally quite accurate.
“We felt like, looking at the data, that the model worked.”
The forecast does not include automotive and gas sales.
Jenny Wagler
@JennyWagler_BIV