Lodgepole pine populations, the mainstay of B.C.’s interior forest industry, are expected to be decimated by climate change before the end of the century.
This according to a new study published by researchers at the University of British Columbia (UBC) and Oregon State University.
The study, which will appear in the journal Climatic Change, predicted that climate warming will push lodgepole populations north toward the Yukon, where colder temperatures and snow are likely to continue.
As a result, only 17% of the pine’s current range in western parts of North America is expected to survive, and it might disappear altogether from most of the U.S. Pacific Northwest.
Nicholas Coops, the study’s co-author and a professor in UBC’s Faculty of Forestry, told Business in Vancouver forestry companies need to rethink their silviculture plans.
“It means that we need to be very careful about what we plant now,” Coops said.
And the shift has already begun.
“Lodgepole pine is currently very heavily attacked by the [mountain pine] beetle … Part of the reason could be these plants are under increased physiological stress than they would have been 30, 40 or 50 years ago,” said Coops. “So we are starting to see our forests changing, and we think part of the reason for that is the climate.”
Although the lodgepole might disappear, Coops believes other species such as interior Douglas Fir, Ponderosa Pine and Grand Fir could take its place.
That means the trees that are being planted today need to be carefully weighed against what foresters will be able to harvest a century from now.
“I think it’s very important that people start to think about what species are being replanted to make sure they’re going to grow,” Coops said. “We don’t want to plant for now; we want to plant for 80 years from now.”