Emerging markets from the Czech Republic and Poland to South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to lead the globe's economic recovery, according to HSBC's emerging markets index.
The index rose to 55.3 in the third quarter from 50.7, signaling the strongest quarterly increase in emerging market manufacturing and service output since the second quarter of 2008.
The index has rebounded sharply from its all-time low of 43.8 in the fourth quarter of 2008. Any reading below 50 indicates a contraction in output.
Emerging markets continued to contract in the first quarter of 2009 before rebounding in mid-2009.
Stephen King, HSBC's chief economist, said: "Although the US remains the most important trading partner for many emerging nations, its relative importance is declining. We now expect emerging nations to see economic growth of 6% next year while the developed world will expand by only 1.8%."