The rules of engagement in the BC Liberal leadership campaign will play a huge role in determining who will be B.C. premier and the party’s leader, according to insiders and strategists.
No date has been set for that convention but it is widely believed it will take place in March 2011.
The party’s constitution currently calls for each member of the party to have one vote each, said Earnscliffe Strategy Group principal Bruce Young, who has strong ties to the BC Liberals and has organized political campaigns for the federal Liberals.
“You can’t answer the question of who is the favourite until you understand the rules,” Young told Business in Vancouver.
“If it’s going to be a one member, one vote donnybrook that is decided on an unweighted basis, then it favours whoever can sign up the most folks in the multi-ethnic communities in Surrey, the Fraser Valley and Vancouver.”
Were the party to change those rules and install a system where each riding has the same voice in determining the leader, it would favour a candidate that has broader name recognition, Young said.
He believes the current rules favour potential candidates Health Minister Kevin Falcon, Attorney General Mike de Jong and Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts.
If the campaign rules change so that each riding had an equal say, other current cabinet members would receive a boost, Young said.
Outsiders such as former minister of children and family development, Christy Clark, may also benefit from a system where each riding gets the same say because her current CKNW talk show is heard throughout B.C.
Party strategists who are close to Clark told BIV they doubt she will run.
“What she really has to do over the next while is really do some soul searching about what it is that she really wants to do if she were to get the job and what her mission would be,” said one party strategist who knows Clark well but did not want to be named.