National Hockey League general managers’ longtime failure to accurately gauge young hockey players’ likelihood of success provides valuable lessons for human resources managers, according to Beedie School of Business professor Peter Tingling.
The biggest problem is what he calls “group think.”
Burnaby’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was widely expected to be picked No. 1 in the lead-up to the NHL’s entry draft June 24. Those picked first overall, however, sometimes wind up as mediocre players, while players drafted next, or even several rounds later turn out to be superstars.
The Vancouver Canucks’ good fortune at drafting Daniel Sedin No. 2 overall and Henrik Sedin No. 3 overall in the 1999 entry draft was only possible because the Atlanta Thrashers picked Patrik Stefan No. 1.
Now-retired, Stefan played 455 NHL games and scored a total of 188 points. By comparison, the Sedins have played 1,777 games and scored 1,445 points between them.
Boston Bruins goalie Tim Thomas, who stymied the Canucks and won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the playoffs, was drafted in the ninth round, or 217th overall by the Quebec Nordiques in 1994.
Tingling, who just released the report Aiming for the Mean: Why Isn’t Drafting Better Than Guessing along with fellow Simon Fraser University professor Michael Brydon, said the culprit for many bad decisions is that scouts are not free to voice opinions independently.
The players’ young age can make selecting future superstars difficult, Tingling said, but there is more at play.
“Group think is a fundamental bias that involves everyone wanting to get along,” he said. “Sometimes you need to be more independent but that’s really, really hard.”
Business executives can learn from this, he said.
Frequently, for example, businesses hire people after having candidates interviewed by a panel.
The problem can occur when notes are shared or if discussion starts with comments from high-ranking executives.
“If the vice-president gets up and says, ‘I like Jane. What do you think?’ Guess what? Others are going to say that they like Jane too,” Tingling said.
“If the lowest-status person can say, ‘I have a couple concerns about something Steve said in the interview. Then, often people are listening. But if it is the vice-president or CEO who gets up and says, ‘I like this,’ then others will fall in line.”
Tingling is also a principal of Vancouver’s 11-employee Octothorpe Software, which has proprietary software to help companies determine how to retain the right staff.