No country in Asia watches presidential elections in the United States with quite the intense interest of Taiwan.
The survival of the island and its 23 million people as an independent nation depends on the goodwill of whoever occupies the White House and that person’s relationship with the Congress. Since 1949 successive U.S. administrations have protected Taiwan from Communist China’s claim to own the island and threats to invade. In so doing, Washington has given Taiwan the room to build the world’s 12th largest economy.
So in Taiwan, the election of the inexperienced and seemingly unpredictable Donald Trump carries implications that directly and immediately affect the life of the nation. The election of Trump is potentially both good and bad. Sadly for Taiwan, whose economy has become dangerously attached to that of China since the turn of the century, the bad news is mostly economic.
Taiwan hoped for passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The island looked forward to being able to join a regional free trade agreement of which China was not a member and where Beijing could not use its usual blackmail tactics to block Taiwanese membership. Trump’s pledge to take the U.S. out of the TPP on his first day as president next year is a serious blow to Taiwan.
The good news for Taiwan is that the Republican Party, with its anti-Communist heritage, has always been more keen on defending Taiwan against China than the Democrats. And at their national convention in July, the Republicans for the first time included in their official policy the “Six Assurances” to defend Taiwan’s independence given by President Ronald Reagan in 1982.
