The latest batch of quarterly demographic data is in, and B.C. continues to do its best impression of a leaky faucet: between October and December of 2012, 2,234 more people left British Columbia for other provinces and territories than came back the other way.
If you want to know when the last time was that B.C. experienced a net inflow of people from other parts of Canada you have to go back to 2011’s second quarter, when there was a net interprovincial inflow of a measly 73 people. That makes it six consecutive quarters in which B.C. has seen a net outflow of taxpayers to other parts of the country, the first time that has happened since the early-2000s.
In aggregate, B.C. has lost 9,630 migrants, on a net basis, to the rest of Canada since 2011’s second quarter.
Not surprisingly, perhaps, is that all of this net outflow – and then some – has been to Alberta, with 12,430 more people leaving B.C. for Calgary, Edmonton, and the oilsands than came back the other way.
In the most recent quarter (Q4 2012), B.C.’s net outflow to Alberta was 2,644 people – 18% greater than B.C.’s total interprovincial net outflow for the quarter.
In highlighting these migration trends it’s not my intent to beat up on B.C.; in fact, if we consider interprovincial migration data for all provinces and territories in 2012’s fourth quarter, only Newfoundland and Alberta experienced a net inflow of people!
That said, Newfoundland experienced only a minuscule net interprovincial inflow of 114, while Alberta welcomed 11,533 more people from other parts of the country than it said goodbye to.
Judging by the reality that virtually all other parts of Canada are losing people to other provinces (largely to Alberta), the fact that B.C. continues to also do so has more to do with its proximity to Alberta and the robustness of that province’s economy (or at least, the perceived opportunities it is creating) than it does with B.C.’s economic or housing market dynamics.
For B.C., the continued net outflow of workers and their families to other parts of Canada is not the only story that emerges from the latest demographic data.
Indeed, stable trends in fertility and mortality, and the second-lowest net inflow of international migrants to the province (730 people) in at least 40 years have combined with the net outflow of interprovincial migrants to result in B.C. adding the fewest number of people – 1,037 – to its domestic population since 1971 (when quarterly record-keeping began).
And this is the main concern coming out of the latest demographic data, as recent quarterly statistics have shown that the large net outflows of people to other provinces have been balanced by significant inflows of international migrants – until now.
As with all demographic trends, it’s important to ask: why do we care about these data, about B.C.’s slowly growing population as a result of consistently large net outflows of workers to Alberta?
Simply put, we have to shed light on the demographic context that will support, or not support, the range of resource opportunities that we speak of so often in this province.
This includes the construction of multiple pipelines across B.C., new mining opportunities and the construction and ongoing operation of new oil and LNG refineries that will facilitate deeper trade ties with Asian markets and could ensure our prosperity for years to come. We must understand, before it’s too late, that in order to capitalize on the vast resource wealth we have in this province, we need labour (read: people).
In the coming years, we can’t rely on natural increase – the difference between the number of babies born each year and the number of people who die – to fuel population and labour force growth in B.C., as much of our population has aged out of family formation and into the higher-mortality phase of life. Instead, we will grow only if more people decide to move here from other Canadian or international locations than choose to leave, and the recent data don’t portend a rosy future.
All of this being said, the trend of departing workers and slow total population growth won’t continue forever, as evidenced by the historical wash and backwash of movers between B.C. and Alberta and the likelihood that Alberta’s economic growth won’t continue indefinitely at its current pace.
However, the sooner we can reverse our migration trends the better, as we’ve got a number of projects in the pipeline – including some that are themselves pipelines – that require robust growth in our population and labour force not just in the future, but today. •
