Following recent lethargic year-over-year gains, population growth is finally showing signs of momentum in B.C. The flow of new residents settling in the province picked up in the first quarter, pushing the provincial population to an estimated 4.6 million residents as of April 1, up 0.3% from January and 1.2% from a year ago.
While still modest, the growth trend has improved in recent quarters. It accelerated to an annualized pace of about 1.4%, rebounding from approximately 1% in the fourth quarter and in line with the third quarter. In comparison, growth generally languished at between 0.5% and 1% from mid-2010 to mid-2013.
Migration is the key source of population expansion in B.C., and growth in international and interprovincial arrivals contributed to the first-quarter gain. Net international migration reached about 11,100 people with seasonally adjusted levels rebounding to the higher range observed from 2008 to 2010. The flow of landed immigrants and net non-permanent residents both picked up, which could reflect stable economic conditions. Immigrant families that delayed moving during the weaker economic environment may have finally committed to moving. The recent moratorium on temporary foreign workers in the food services sector could slow the flow of non-permanent residents in the second quarter.
In a welcome surprise, B.C. gained 1,300 more people than it lost to other provinces in the first quarter. This followed net outflows in each of the previous eight quarters and nine out of the last 10 months. The positive performance primarily reflected a lower net outflow to Alberta during the quarter. This rise in interprovincial migration is a sharp departure from recent trends and will be difficult to sustain given the allure of higher wages and a stronger economy just east of the Rockies. Net migration is projected to fall back into negative territory before rising in 2015.
Population growth is expected to improve to 1.1% this year, up from 0.9% in 2013.
