Canadian small business confidence recovered slightly in April following the tariff-threat-driven crash in March, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). That said, sentiment remains exceptionally weak as businesses navigate an unpredictable trade environment that risks a period of stagflation. The CFIB’s 12-month business confidence index rose nine points to 34.8 points but pointed to a contractionary environment. The index typically tracks about 65 points in a normal operating environment.
B.C.’s 12-month index rose by 7.6 points to 36.7 points. Its improvement was middling and the third weakest among the provinces, while the short-term index rose only marginally to 37.8 points — the second-lowest level in the country after Newfoundland and Labrador. Insufficient demand and skilled labour shortages continue to be the most-noted constraints to sales or production growth for businesses in B.C. A shortage of working capital and physical space also limited sales growth. Taxes and regulations, wages and insurance were the top input cost constraints, while the cost of occupancy, product inputs and fuel also made the list of constraints. Full-time staffing plans declined again, with only 10 per cent of respondents saying they expected to increase their staff levels. This is the lowest result over the last year. Meanwhile, 20 per cent of B.C. small businesses said they plan to reduce full-time staff levels. About 56 per cent of businesses reported their general state of business health as “satisfactory,” up from 50 per cent. This highlights the fact that tariffs were still in their early stages.
B.C.’s housing starts edged higher in March, with the seasonally adjusted, annualized rate rising above 29,000 units — a 5.9-per-cent increase from the downward-revised February level. Despite the monthly increase, March’s result remained low and near the bottom of the range observed over the past five years. March’s gain was primarily driven by a 6.4-per-cent increase in multifamily unit starts, which rose above 25,000 units. Meanwhile, single-family housing starts edged up 3.2 per cent to nearly 3,900 units. In comparison, national housing starts decreased by 2.8 per cent month over month. The persistence of low housing starts has reflected lower pre-sales for new projects, high building costs and interest rates, all of which have limited the ability of developers to move forward with projects.
Of the seven major metro areas in the province, only three recorded a lower seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of housing starts in March. Vancouver experienced its first monthly increase following three consecutive monthly declines, with starts rising two per cent to more than 17,500 units. This was consistent with some of the lowest levels seen since early 2022. Kelowna, Nanaimo and Kamloops saw sharp decreases in March. In contrast, Victoria housing starts tripled to an annualized 4,400 units, while Abbotsford-Mission reported a 51-per-cent increase to more than 2,800 units.
On an unadjusted basis, B.C. saw a 30.1-per-cent, year-over-year decrease in housing starts year to date, with more than 7,500 units started in the first three months of 2025, compared to more than 10,700 units during the same period in 2024. Multifamily units led the decline, falling 31.9 per cent to more than 6,700 units from 9,900 units last year. Single-family starts declined 9.1 per cent.
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
