Getting the immigration equation right in Canada is critical to the future well-being of the country’s economy.
Sheer numbers are not going to do it for immigrants or for Canada. The federal government’s plan to increase Canada’s immigration rate to approximately 1% of the country’s population over the next three years is aimed, in part, at making up for the pandemic-induced immigration shortfall.
Canada also faces a human resources innovation and enterprise deficit. Homegrown sources of those economic fundamentals will not provide enough of what the country needs to compete in the 21st century globally, especially with Canada’s aging demographic and low birth rate.
But as economist Jock Finlayson, senior policy adviser to the Business Council of British Columbia, pointed out in last week’s BIV immigration feature, increasing a country’s population is no guarantee of improving its economy. According to the federal government’s 2021-23 Immigration Levels Plan, approximately 60% of admissions will be drawn from the economic class of immigrants. That’s a good start.
But how clear is Ottawa’s focus on attracting top talent in science, technology engineering and mathematics (STEM)? And how much weight does the country’s immigration points system give to prospective immigrants with advanced degrees in STEM-related disciplines?
Aside from Canada’s chronically mediocre GDP-per-person productivity, its personal tax rate for top-paid talent is higher than its counterpart in California and other states.
That puts Canada at a disadvantage in the competition for human resources talent, as will the higher costs of doing business that are looming large in post-vaccination Canada.
So Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino’s plan for 1.2 million newcomers over three years has the ring of proactive immigration action to it, but it will only pay off for Canada and its next cohort of immigrants if it can attract the right mix of talent for its economic needs in the right regions of the country and the new arrivals are those with the best chances to succeed and contribute to Canada’s growth and prosperity.
