If you pay attention to political and economic cycles, you would know there is no more placid and inert place than the one the Justin Trudeau government finds itself.
Its poll standings are sturdy—even if the prime minister’s trip to India was a fashion-first fiasco—because the political opposition have not cohered under their new leaders.
The economy isn’t in need of triage—even if the deficit seems an indefinite federal fixture—because Canada has fared relatively well from US momentum and surprisingly well in job growth.
Thus there is neither an urgent need to place a chicken in every pot, nor to minister to a recession, nor to waste valuable political capital now on initiatives that might be forgotten by the fall of 2019 when the Liberals want command of our memories.
That being said, Finance Minister Bill Morneau chose to emphasize the pursuits of equality and reconciliation as themes in his presentation. His measures chose paths of some value and others of some question.
There were funds to push for gender wage equity—at least, within federal agencies, where Ottawa can exert control—and to encourage women entrepreneurs. But there was nothing as profound as an articulated mission on national childcare or measures. We wish more women to advance through the sciences, but the government’s commitment Tuesday was well short of what independent reviews suggested the country needed.
The budget appeared to make strides for Indigenous economic strengthening, with better support for treaty negotiation and a clearer road to nation-to-nation development—albeit couched, again, on a review of governance programs. More imminently helpful: an accelerated fix on the abhorrent state of drinking water on many reserves, more funds for child safety, and a stronger program for First Nations-led housing.
If there is a distinct omission in Tuesday’s budget, it resembled a distinct omission in last Tuesday’s budget: you’d never know America mattered to Canada. Our trade pact is troubled and the Trump administration has introduced such business-friendly tax reform that even Warren Buffett notices his newfound wealth.
But neither Morneau nor BC Finance Minister Carole James saw fit to prepare or proactively improve the climate of business investment or taxation. They need the coin—and maybe more—to fulfill their policies, so they appear willing to wait until the storm hits before we buy the raincoat. They seem to hope the storm first hits the US in the form of a deficit that has to be addressed there.
If there was an expected resolution in Tuesday’s budget, it was the effort to clarify what might remain of the self-destructive mess of last July’s summer surprise to tax incorporated small- and mid-sized businesses. Mostly the minister had crawled down on the enraging package; on Tuesday he limited access to the small-business tax rate to incorporate firms with more than $1 million in assets.
If Trudeau’s India trip cannot be put in the rear-view mirror yet, then Morneau’s mauling of small business might be.
What was clear Tuesday is that the Trudeau government does not have John Horgan’s challenge to prove competence on the economic file, nor the urgency that seized the BC NDP in starting to tackle policies after occupying opposition for 16 years. The largest idea, a national pharmacare program, is merely starting to be plotted.
This was a budget of valuable gestures, but not necessarily meaningful measures.
