Canada’s long-standing consensus on immigration is under pressure. Today, high immigration levels are increasingly blamed for unaffordable housing, overwhelmed hospitals, stagnant wages and even rising crime, while somehow also accused of exploiting the very newcomers we welcome.
Meanwhile, defenders of immigration too often fall back on vague historical platitudes about us being a nation of immigrants, without addressing modern concerns head-on. If immigration really were such a burden, why do we keep supporting it?
The answer is twofold: We can’t keep our population constant, because demographics mean we are aging rapidly. And given that, immigration isn’t a burden — it’s a lifeline. Our social programs, public finances and workforce depend on it — and without it, they would collapse. Despite this, at today’s rates of immigration, our dependency ratio — the ratio of workers to retirees — will continue to deteriorate. To keep our current rate of workers to non-workers constant, we would need to double the rate of immigration.
A typical Canadian’s life breaks down into three stages: Childhood (a net cost to society), working age (a net contributor) and retirement (a return to being a net cost). New immigrants short-circuit this cycle. Most arrive in their prime working years, skipping the first 20 years of taxpayer-funded upbringing. Many come as international students, paying inflated tuition that covers not only their own education, but subsidizes domestic students. Then they work, pay taxes and fill labour gaps.
Rapid population growth creates pressure on housing, but that’s a policy failure, not an immigrant problem.
Look at Alberta, where population growth has outpaced B.C.’s, yet housing remains significantly more affordable. Or Texas, where population gains have far exceeded California’s, and average home prices are roughly half. California, despite having no population growth over the past decade, has seen home prices more than double. Clearly, supply — not population — is the binding constraint.
Similarly, while it’s true that Canada’s health-care system is under pressure, immigrants aren’t the ones straining it.
The biggest driver of rising health-care costs is aging. Seniors consume health care at up to 10 times the rate of working-age Canadians. Immigrants, who are generally young and healthy, use far fewer resources — up to 20 times less than seniors — and often work as nurses, doctors and health aides. They’re not just easing the pressure, they’re helping keep the system afloat.
By 2040, B.C. will add 500,000 seniors. That’s the equivalent health-care burden of nearly 10 million new working-age immigrants. Even if we stopped immigration tomorrow, health-care costs will keep rising far faster than the rate of inflation. The only way to sustain the system is to grow the base of younger, working taxpayers.
Immigrants don’t just supply labour — they create demand for goods, services and housing. More people means more business activity, customers and opportunities.
Social media is flooded with anecdotes of immigrants committing crimes. But these stories distort reality. Data shows that immigrants commit crimes at about half the rate of native-born Canadians.
Canada’s immigration system is designed to select for individuals with skills, education and drive. The result is a cohort that’s statistically more law-abiding than the native-born population.
The bottom line is that Canada is aging rapidly. Our health-care system, pension plans and public services are riding on the backs of a shrinking pool of working-age taxpayers. Immigration is the only scalable way to grow that base fast enough to keep the system functioning.
If we fail to support immigration — or worse, reverse it — the consequences will be severe: Sky-rocketing taxes on a dwindling workforce, rising deficits, overwhelmed hospitals and social services stretched to the breaking point. A smaller, older population also means slower growth and fewer opportunities.
In 1995, Japan’s GDP per capita was double Canada’s. Today, it’s just over half. A rapidly aging, shrinking population has led to decades of stagnation, labour shortages and fiscal stress.
Rather than dragging the system down, immigrants are keeping it upright. They are workers, taxpayers, entrepreneurs and caregivers. They are not the problem — they are the solution. Canada’s future prosperity depends on whether we treat them as such.
Dan Scarrow is president and CEO of Macdonald Realty Group of Companies.
