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Outlook 2018: Economic uncertainty abounds for the province’s business sector

When Business in Vancouver first approached me to write this column and speculate about the key issues facing B.C.’s business community in 2018, a few obvious ideas came to mind. Then a few more came to mind. And a few more.
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When Business in Vancouver first approached me to write this column and speculate about the key issues facing B.C.’s business community in 2018, a few obvious ideas came to mind. 

Then a few more came to mind. And a few more.

By the time I sat down at my desk, I found myself staring at a laundry list of issues that are causing concern for members of the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, whose companies employ one-third of the workforce in British Columbia.

In my six years at the helm of this organization, I have never sensed such trepidation from business owners at the beginning of a new year. Without being hyperbolic, there is a growing sense of uneasiness that is being stoked by uncertainty.

There is a gathering storm of policy changes at all levels of government, each of which could increase the cost of doing business for companies of all sizes, across all industries. In isolation, one or two of these issues would cause some heartburn for a business organization such as ours. But cumulatively, these potential policy pursuits have us gravely concerned about our shared economic future.

At the federal level, our members remain very anxious about the government’s proposed small-business tax changes – an issue that drew the ire of small-business owners coast to coast in 2017. The backlash was unprecedented. In just one month, more than 28,000 emails were sent to members of Parliament through our website, expressing staunch opposition to the proposed changes.

There are still many lingering concerns and a litany of questions that remain unanswered. Business groups across the country have vowed to keep the pressure on Ottawa as we move into 2018, particularly as we approach the next federal budget.

Speaking of the upcoming federal budget, our organization will also remain very vigilant about the overall fiscal state of our nation and, specifically, the lack of a road map to return our country to a balanced budget.

At the provincial level, B.C.’s new coalition government has indicated it might unleash a number of policy changes that would impact businesses in this province, principally, but not exclusively, changes to the statutory relationship between employers and employees via B.C.’s labour code and employment standards rules.

In addition, the provincial government has also signalled its intentions to move toward a $15-an-hour minimum wage – and swiftly. Our organization has been in consultation with the government on this topic and recently presented to the Fair Wages Commission. In those remarks, we strongly urged the government to move slowly, if it is indeed determined to go down this path. We also urged government to consider the administrative impact and the full cumulative cost burden that such a change would have on small businesses, which account for six in 10 jobs in B.C.

At the regional level, our ongoing concerns remain over land scarcity in the Lower Mainland, particularly the need to protect industrial lands and trade-enabling infrastructure. As a region, we also have a number of pivotal discussions facing us that will require thoughtful collaboration, including the ongoing – and interlinked – discussions about transit, transportation and housing affordability.

In 2018, expect to start hearing a lot more about mobility pricing in the media, with the independent commission’s report and recommendations expected to be released in spring 2018. This is a huge conversation for our region collectively, and it’s one that many other regions have grappled with over many years – if not decades. And, of course, 2018 will also bring with it municipal elections across our province, which will have the potential to impact businesses in our communities. 

These are just some of the many moving parts that will be shifting around us in 2018 – and we’re only just scratching the surface. Other big, thoughtful conversations we will need to tackle in the next 12 months include the referendum on proportional representation in November, the legalization of marijuana in July and the uncertain future of major infrastructure projects such as Site C and the Massey tunnel replacement.

Not to mention that internationally, we also need to brace for uncertainty, as the future of trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership remains in a precarious state of flux. Add to that the unpredictable and diverging approach to business taxation and regulation in the U.S. and you have a perfect storm.

In short, 2018 will present a number of challenges for B.C.’s business community – some familiar, and some new. As always, the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade is committed to remaining a strong and vocal advocate, ensuring that you and your business have a say in the decisions that will shape our future.

Iain Black is president and CEO of the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade.