Abbotsford-Mission can expect healthy economic growth this year and for the following four years, according to a Conference Board of Canada study on medium-sized metropolitan economies released July 22.
The board forecasts Abbotsford-Mission will see overall growth of 3.2% in 2015. This is second only to the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterlook area, with 3.4%. By contrast, in a study released in May that looked at large metropolitan areas across Canada, the Conference Board predicted growth of 3.1% in Vancouver this year – tied with Toronto for first place.
The Canadian average is forecast at 1.9% in 2015, which is down from 2.5% in 2014.
Between 2016 and 2019, Abbotsford-Mission should see an increase of 2.6% in its economy, making it the top performer among medium-sized economies. In the board’s May report, it had forecast Vancouver to see Canada’s highest growth at 3.1%. This was followed by Toronto at 2.9%.
A lower Canadian dollar will boost manufacturing and primary and utilities output in Abbotsford-Mission this year, according to the report.
As well, residential- and non-residential construction is expected to increase.
“Demand for apartments and condominiums has been driven by their affordability compared with surrounding areas, such as Vancouver and Surrey, and easier commuting thanks to new highway infrastructure such as the South Fraser Perimeter Highway,” the report said.
“Healthy population gains are expected to keep housing starts moving upward over the next few years, with growth forecast to average 12.2% per year between 2016 and 2019.”
Non-residential construction is also expected to increase, with BC Hydro’s $748 million Ruskin Dam upgrade in Mission providing a boost. This project is expected to be completed in 2017.
Provincial outlook
Across British Columbia as a whole, growth of 3.1% is expected in 2015. This will make it the only province to see an increase above 3%.
In the first quarter of this year, B.C.’s economic increase was driven by exports of forestry products, building and packaging materials, industrial machinery and equipment and consumer goods. This is expected to continue and, because of this, manufacturing is forecast to be strong for the next two years with growth of 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2016.
“Lifting manufacturing output further is the start of work on the $8 billion federal shipbuilding contract this year,” the board said in its report.
“Seaspan Shipyards completed a $170 million modernization of its facilities in Vancouver to prepare for the construction of non-combat vessels for the Canadian Coast Guard and the Royal Canadian Navy.”
Provincial construction is expected to be lower in 2015 than in 2014 due to a drop in non-residential investment.
“Two large mining projects – the Mount Milligan copper mine and the Red Chris copper and gold mine, which boosted construction output over the past several years – have been completed and moved into production,” the report said.
However, construction in the province will pick up in 2016, the board said. Work has already begun on some large projects, including the expansion of the Prince Rupert container terminal and the Avanti Kitsault molybdenum mine.
Housing starts will also continue to grow.
“A growing population, spurred in part by interprovincial and international migration and a strong economy raising household income, will support the increased demand for new housing,” the board’s report said. “Housing starts will rise by 7.2% in 2015 and 3.4% in 2016 to reach 31,445 units.
“All told, construction will gain 1.7% in 2015 and 5.3% in 2016.”
The Conference Board said if any one of the proposed LNG projects in the province does go ahead, B.C. will see even higher economic growth than currently forecast.
