The orange tide that crested in Alberta on May 5 might lift B.C. to the forefront of Western Canada’s growing economic prominence.
Rachel Notley’s NDP demolition of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative dynasty will provide what many see as a much-needed transfusion of fresh blood into the body politic of B.C.’s petro-powered eastern neighbour.
But, as has been documented elsewhere, the radical political change has understandably upped anxiety among Alberta’s business leaders, especially those tied to the oilpatch. After all, Notley’s NDP election platform included promises to review the province’s royalty regime and to refrain from advocating for the Keystone XL and Northern Gateway pipelines.
Alberta business in general might also be concerned with NDP plans to increase corporate income tax to 12% from 10%, while small-business owners in particular will be wringing hands over the party’s promise to increase Alberta’s hourly minimum wage to $15 from the current $10.20.
Those concerns are backdropped by Alberta’s weak economic outlook. BMO’s Blue Book forecasts an anemic 0.4% GDP growth in 2015.
While the NDP’s Alberta victory will likewise raise apprehension among B.C. businesses tied to resource development and expansion, it provides much economic opportunity for the combined three western provinces.
BMO’s outlook for GDP growth in B.C., with its more diversified economy, is 2.6% in 2015.
Saskatchewan’s economy, meanwhile, continues to prosper, even with the oil sector’s downturn.
As the Regina Regional Opportunities Commission and Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority’s recent visits to Vancouver and Calgary underscored, there’s mutual value for all three provinces in looking interprovincially for new markets and human resource talent rather than continuing to default to other jurisdictions for both.
B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan each face marketplace challenges, but the political change in Alberta could be the first step in redrawing the economic possibilities for all three.
