Christy Clark’s Liberal Party may have suffered from a bit of the same revenge vote that upended politics in the U.S, France and UK, but it also made a serious miscalculation in Surrey, said Lindsay Meredith, professor emeritus at the Beedie School of Business.
Provided nothing changes when the final vote count is done two weeks from now, he said the Green Party is now poised to make a real mark on B.C. politics, including changing the way future elections are held by using his new power to force through electoral and campaign financing reforms.
“Those three Green seats are going to turn out to be vitally important here all the way down the line,” Meredith said.
The Liberals failed to realize how angry Surrey voters are over things like bridge tolls, the lack of public transit, and overcrowded schools and take steps earlier to address their concerns. The NDP ended up capturing six of the nine Surrey ridings.
“They underestimated South Surrey,” Meredith said. “There was a lot of things out in Surrey that had people pissed.”
Meredith said polling showed that health care concerns were a major issue for many voters, especially older ones. And while the Liberal platform is actually stronger on health care funding than either the NDP or Green platforms, Clark stayed focused on jobs, not health care.
“They already had the data,” Meredith said. “Thirty-two per cent of the prime political issues were health care. The Liberals just did nothing to jump on that one. It was such an easy card to play, this whole health care problem.”
The final vote count takes place between May 22 and 24. Absentee ballots could swing things in favour of either the Liberals or NDP.
But provided the current makeup of the Legislature stays the way it is now, Weaver will have to decide how to play his cards.
As Meredith points out, there are short-term payoffs to be had by forming a coalition with either the Liberals or NDP, including cabinet posts.
“But we also know that these transitional parties only last about two years,” he said. “And at that point, when it goes haywire, very often the guy who allowed it to happen – in other words, Weaver – he gets blamed for part of it. In other words, he cuts his own throat down the line. He’s not stupid – he knows that too.”
By playing the deal-breaker with a minority Liberal government, he could push through some of his key policies, including electoral reform, which could ultimately benefit his own party’s future prospects.
“Third thing, he’s going to want to do some serious damage to LNG,” Meredith said. “That could be a very interesting one, because if it’s the Liberals involved in that, I don’t know if he could cut a deal on that one. NDP maybe.”
Minority governments typically do not last more than two years before an election is forced.
“These things are usually on life support,” Meredith said. “All you’ll need is one major area of dissention.
“He’s now got himself a tiny bit of critical mass. He’ actually on the maps, he’s got three seats going. He may decide to play this one loose and say, ‘You know what? I don’t think I want to be in anyone’s pocket.’ That would suggest he wouldn’t go into a coalition arrangement.”
