Canadian retail sales plunged 5.7% in April as the third wave of the pandemic and more restrictive public health measures affected retailers in several provinces.
This was the sharpest pullback since April 2020, but the severity of the decline was uneven and largely confined to Ontario (-13.4%) and Manitoba (-8%).
B.C. retailers were modestly affected by the government’s “circuit breaker” measures. Retail sales slipped 0.2% in April after a 0.8% decline in March to reach $8.18 billion. While off the recent peak, sales were still 11% above February 2020. Year-over-year growth of 45% largely reflects base-year effects of the steep drop-off last year.
Based on our adjustments for seasonal factors, sales fell about 2% at motor vehicles and parts dealers and furniture stores, while also dipping at electronic stores. That said, sales remained elevated. Vehicle sales may have been tempered by broader supply chain disruptions. Clothing store sales continue to recover as the return to more normal social interactions and offices lifted sales.
Mixed patterns are expected. Economic recovery continues to support broad demand but spending habits rotate more towards services and leisure spending. Food sales will likely decline as households dine out more with loosening of restrictions. Nevertheless, retail goods sales growth is forecast to reach 6.5%.
After falling sharply through the pandemic, B.C. population growth looks to have turned the corner during the first quarter, lifted by robust interprovincial migration, while net international inflows gained traction.
B.C.’s population reached an estimated 5.17 million persons as of April 1. Soft year-over-year growth of 0.6% gain was largely due to weakness in the second half of 2020. On a quarterly basis, the population jumped 0.4% (21,685 persons) from January 1, which was stronger than usual for a first quarter, suggesting delayed moves from 2020 are now occurring.
International immigration, pummelled in recent quarters due to pandemic effects on global movements, processing delays and general fears of travel, largely normalized during the first quarter. Excluding non-permanent residents, net international inflows reached 8,116 persons.
While 13% lower than the first quarter of 2020, this compared to a year-over-year decline of 40% in the fourth quarter.•
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
