Labour market conditions in B.C. showed further improvement in November as a better economic backdrop lifted employment for a fourth consecutive month. B.C. employment grew by 4,200 persons from October, or 0.2%, to outperform nearly all other provinces.
National employment fell 0.1%, shedding 10,700 persons from the employed workforce. Employment gains in B.C. lowered the jobless rate to 5.8% of the labour force, the lowest since April.
For the most part, the labour force report details were constructive. Growth in full-time employment remained positive, but slowed to 0.1% following a strong October gain, while part-time employment reversed a previous month’s decline. Gains were concentrated among youth and adult males, as the adult female group shrank by 0.5%. Among sectors, resource extraction, trade and public administration posted stronger employment gains. These were largely offset by contractions in manufacturing, professional/scientific/technical services and transport/warehousing. Given industry performance, it is not surprising that job growth was concentrated outside Metro Vancouver in November. Metro Vancouver employment growth was a mild 0.1%, although the unemployment rate also declined.
Hiring has shifted higher in the latter half of this year and has trended at an annualized rate of more than 2% in recent months. Hiring in November was 2% more than that of the same month last year, although this is partly inflated by a weak fourth-quarter performance in 2013.
Nonetheless, annual employment growth is still expected to come in below 1% due to a weak first half. Growth in Metro Vancouver has offset a contraction in the rest of B.C. Provincial unemployment will dip to about 6% of the labour force this year, which is the lowest since 2008.
However, this in large part reflects a decline in labour force participation over the past year rather than substantial improvement in labour
market conditions.
Stronger economic growth will drive employment growth to 1.4% in 2015 and the unemployment rate down to 5.7%.
Bryan Yu is an economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
