BC might have one of Canada’s oldest communities, but fortunately, overall, the province hasn’t aged as quickly as the rest of the country.
At a recent CFA Vancouver event, David Foot, author of the Boom, Bust and Echo bestseller, noted that B.C. still has some wriggle room when it comes to addressing the pending financial burden of higher health-care costs once the baby boom generation starts entering its prime health-care spending years. (See “B.C. has six years to fix its health-care system” – BIV issue 1250; October 8-14.)
While Victoria is one of Canada’s oldest communities, B.C.’s population is not as old as its counterparts in almost every province east of Manitoba.
“If you go to any eastern province, you will see a bigger percentage of people in the older age group with a smaller percentage in the younger age groups,” said Foot. “That means Eastern Canada is significantly older than Central and Western Canada. That’s why they struggle with their health-care budgets before those out west.”
But Foot noted that migration patterns in B.C. are creating different health-care requirements throughout the province.
According to BC Stats, Vancouver Island and the Thompson-Okanagan currently have the highest proportion (6%) of their populations over the age of 80 and in their prime health-care spending years.
In contrast, the youngest populations are in B.C.’s North Coast, Cariboo and Nechako regions, whose population over 80 is roughly 3%.
But this is forecast to change dramatically over the next 20 to 25 years.
By 2036, the oldest region in B.C. will be the Kootenays, with more than 11% of its population over 80. It will surpass even Vancouver Island in relative age.
The Thompson-Okanagan will drop to third place.
The Nechako region, which is one of the province’s youngest, will be the fourth oldest.
Surprisingly, the Lower Mainland, which today is in the middle of the pack in terms of its proportion of elderly residents, is forecast to be the youngest over the next quarter century.
“Young people are moving to the cities, and that means our smaller communities are significantly older, but that’s where the demand for health care is growing,” said Foot.
“That’s beginning to bankrupt our smaller communities in the country.” •
