There isn't a lot of good news on the province's economic horizon for 2014.
According to Central 1 Credit Union's latest economic forecast released September 24, most segments of the B.C. economy will continue to face challenging circumstances next year.
Central 1 is expecting lower mineral and metal prices to continue into 2014, which will hamper growth prospects in the province's mining sector. Prices are expected to remain soft for copper, gold and other commodities, which will likely lead to further challenges for B.C.'s junior mining sector, which has had difficulty raising additional financing for further exploration and development.
B.C.'s natural gas sector will see some modest gains this year after contracting in 2012, said the report. But the sector will still be off its price highs of the mid-2000s.
B.C.'s housing market is likely to continue to see a slow recovery. While annual home sales are up 5% this year, and are expected to rise another 6% in 2014, sales levels won't move above the 10-year average until 2015. B.C.'s housing starts are forecast to fall to 25,800 units in 2013 and increase to 26,900 in 2014.
The slow housing market has come from "tepid" job market growth so far this year. The net number of new jobs in B.C. has been "nearly zero" which has been the weakest performance since 2009 and 2001. But Central 1 is expecting job growth to improve next year as B.C.'s economy begins to reap the rewards of an improving U.S. housing market and American consumer spending.
For 2014, the forestry sector will be one of the main sources of economic growth in B.C., riding on improved demand for wood products from the U.S. and from continued reconstruction efforts in Japan following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in northern Japan.
Overall, B.C.'s economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2014, from a 1.4% increase in real gross domestic product forecast in B.C. for 2013. Growth is forecast to accelerate in 2015 and beyond on faster U.S. economic growth of 3% to 3.5% between 2015 and 2017.
