BC has been an economic disappointment.
Hopes have been consistently dashed in the past couple of years for a resurgence of economic growth closer to historical averages in B.C.
Earlier this year, more than half of the 10 economic departments covered by Business in Vancouver had been forecasting growth to break the 2% mark in 2013.
As the months passed, however, forecasts have slowly ratcheted down. Most of those forecasts now expect B.C.'s economy to grow between 1.6% and 1.8% this year.
Last year, hopes for a stronger economic recovery were thwarted as fears grew over the impact from the correction in the B.C. residential real estate market, the persistent crisis in the eurozone and a slowing economy in China.
But, this year, B.C.'s slower-than-expected growth has resulted from relatively lacklustre improvement in the overall domestic economy. Retail sales, for example, have remained fairly stagnant in B.C. for nearly two years. According to Statistics Canada, the province's retail sales slipped 0.7% in April from March's weak sales growth to $5.13 billion on lower vehicle and gasoline sales. For the first four months of the year, retail sales in B.C. were down 0.2%.
Central 1 Credit Union noted that lack of consumer-spending growth has been disappointing, with sales hovering around $5.1 billion since October 2011 despite an influx of new consumers from net in-migration to B.C., as more new immigrants try to make Canada their new home.
But British Columbians appear to be hunkering down financially. With so much concern over the financial health of Canadian households, many are erring on the side of caution and resisting the urge to go on a spending spree (unless they're going to the U.S. for their retail therapy and spending $1 billion, according to a recent Business Council of BC study).
By the numbers, 2013 could be an economic writeoff, continuing the trend of stagnant job growth in B.C. But growth is, apparently, coming. Most economists are still expecting growth to break the 2% mark in 2014.
More on this next week. •
