From “Canada’s future is in the west” to “a new era of economics and politics,” recent headlines detailing the newly released 2011 census data paint a picture of a re-orientation of both population and economic activity away from Central Canada and toward the West.
The first release of the 2011 census data on total population and dwellings showed that Western Canada, from Manitoba to British Columbia, is now home to a larger share of Canada’s population than is Eastern Canada (Quebec to Atlantic Canada).
Between 2006 and 2011, population growth rates in the West were all above the national average of 5.9%, while those in Ontario, Quebec and much of Atlantic Canada (except in oil-rich Newfoundland and Labrador, of course) were below average. This resulted in the West’s share of the population increasing to 30.7% as Central Canada (Ontario) fell to 38.4%, and the East fell to 30.6%.
While the 2006 to 2011 changes make for good headlines, considering previous census counts shows that the shift westward is not a new phenomenon. The 1971 census showed that Western Canada held 26.6% of Canada’s population, with Central Canada home to 35.7%, the East 37.5% and Northern Canada 0.25%.
By 1981 Western Canada’s share grew to 28.7% as Ontario declined to 35.4% and the East to 35.6% (Northern Canada grew to 0.28%). The following two decades showed a similar pattern: the West increased to 29% in 1991 and to 29.9% by 2001.
While certainly characterized by ebbs and flows, the westward movement of the Canadian population dates all the way back to Confederation when Western Canada was home to less than 3% of our population. The 1871 census showed that at this time more than half of the population (53%) lived in Eastern Canada, while Ontario made up just under 45% of the population. Rather than being major paradigm shifts, these recent changes represent continued meanderings along paths that have been evident through previous census periods.
Another great headline that accompanied the census release was that now more than 80% of Canadians live in urban areas, the highest share recorded in Canadian history.
This trend can also be tracked through the historical data. Looking back to Confederation and the 1871 census, just over 80% of Canada’s population resided in rural areas. As with the westward re-orientation of population, Canada’s urban regions have consistently grown faster than our rural regions, and therefore have grown as a share of our population.
Within Metro Vancouver, the movement has not been westward, but, for the most part, eastward. The 2011 counts show the municipalities south of the Fraser and in the northeast sector grew more rapidly than the City of Vancouver. Again, this is not a new phenomenon: the City of Vancouver has been losing regional prominence (at least in terms of its share of population) since before 1921 when it was home to three-quarters of the region’s population.
While administratively situated outside of the Metro Vancouver region, it is important to note that both the Squamish and Chilliwack census agglomerations grew faster than the Metro Vancouver region. Growth in these communities reflects a wide range of factors, from changing land values to improved accessibility, that are conspiring to re-draw the boundaries around what we have traditionally considered to be the Lower Mainland region.
Although demographics tend to change at a glacial pace, it’s the collection of incremental changes seen through each census count that illustrates both the profound longer-term changes we have seen in our local and national populations, and the directions we may be going in years to come.
Perhaps the West’s population will someday surpass that of Ontario (maybe sometime after 2076), Metro Vancouver’s most prominent municipality (in terms of population) will be the City of Surrey (look to the 2036 census for this headline), and we will finally re-draw the region to include Squamish and the Fraser Valley.
We will just have to wait for those headlines to emerge from future census releases. •
