B.C.’s Economic Forecast Council predicts real GDP growth to be 2.6% in 2015 — down slightly from its December estimate of 2.7%.
The council also announced Thursday (February 5) it expects real GDP growth to hit 2.8% in 2016, an uptick of 0.1% from its previous estimate. The 2017-19 outlook remains at 2.5%.
“It is quite fascinating right now,” Business Council of B.C. economist Ken Peacock told Business In Vancouver.
He said 2.6% is a fairly average performance but “that pace could very well lead all of the provinces in Canada.”
Peacock noted oil-producing provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador will be hit by slow growth this year.
Meanwhile, B.C., Ontario and — to a lesser extent — Quebec gain a big advantage when it comes to exports due to the decline in the Canadian dollar.
The Loonie was worth just under US$1 a year ago. On Thursday afternoon, it was trading at 80.4 cents U.S.
“While the reduction in crude prices is generally not expected to have a significant negative effect on the province, it has increased uncertainty as low oil prices are accompanied with downward pressure on other commodity prices, including natural gas,” the council said in a statement.
The Economic Forecast Council includes 14 members who have been given the mandate of providing the province’s finance minister with economic advice ahead of the year’s budget and fiscal plan.
