The economic gods have not been good to today's BC Liberals.
The government has struggled to pull a political rabbit out of its hat to concretely prove that its policies have helped keep the province's economy along a path of prosperity.
The latest job figures from BC Stats have not helped, showing that the number of people without a job in B.C. rose by 18,400 in March to 173,100 from 154,700 in February. That boosted the unemployment rate back above 7%.
B.C.'s export numbers have also proven disappointing, showing that exports in the first two months of 2013 fell 0.5% compared to the same period last year. In 2012, exports fell 3% for the year compared to 2011.
Such disappointing numbers have been a boon to critics of Christy Clark's government. But as some analysts have noted, selectively picking time periods to prove a political point has its dangers and limitations.
Among them is implying the government had a direct influence on any of these economic outcomes compared with other factors that might have had a more significant impact.
A closer look at the exports data, for example, would suggest global demand for B.C.'s key export commodities have had a significant impact on B.C.'s global trade numbers. Rising lumber exports to the States because of an improving U.S. housing market have been offset by falling exports of natural gas to our southern neighbours and plummeting coal exports to Europe and Japan.
On the jobs front, the declining numbers in recent months could have more to do with the economic cycles of various industries in the province. For example, according to Statistics Canada, jobs in primary occupations such as agriculture have been dropping for months by roughly 20,000 since November. Those losses have offset the significant gains in much higher paying science and technology jobs over the same time period.
Where government can influence the economy is through its policies that encourage entrepreneurship and innovation. Studies have shown it's the entrepreneurial "gazelles" that are the key job creators in any jurisdiction. Metro Vancouver has been cited as a top 10 jurisdiction in the world for tech startups. Whether it stays that way after May 14 will be something to watch.
