More often than usual, the licence plate on the car in front of me this summer in locales as varied as Vancouver and Powell River has been Albertan.
Typically, these cars and trucks have been new, top-of-the-line, optioned-out beauties. Nothing second-hand or “cheaped out” for our Albertan cousins. B.C. folk notice these things and to a certain degree have come to expect them. Our western provincial neighbours are these kinds of people.
They’ve always had money for toys and a lifestyle many veteran “coasters” haven’t been able to afford. Many of us know that we too could drive east and tie into some of that frothy oil money, if we chose to. And to be fair, a lot of us have.
This summer, however, there is a sense of change and uncertainty in the air. Our neighbours next door to our Vancouver apartment still have white-and-red Alberta plates on their Porsche SUV, but they have decided to live here. And they are encouraging their adult children and grandchildren to do the same. Up coast, I’ve seen a surprising number of young Albertan families slowing down in front of “for sale” signs on houses.
Just as US$100 oil drew so many Canadians from the have-not provinces to Alberta, so does US$40 oil give cause for an exit. I think this time around it’s an exit worth taking.
Obviously, Alberta is a single-industry resource economy with all the attendant benefits and problems. The benefits are obvious; some of the problems not so much.
Consider how easy it has been to earn professional-grade salaries from low-level skills. This fact in itself builds dependency on one economic sector, argues against pursuing advanced education and rewards intellectual complacency. These are not winning arguments in a fast-changing world.
Consider too the broadly held awareness of carbon’s role in climate change. The coming Paris United Nations Climate Change Conference in December will clinch the reality of needed energy-grid change in our collective minds and souls. Even the Pope gets it.
So why would any promising and critically thinking young student, especially those in math and sciences, now pursue a career in oil and gas? Wouldn’t most teenagers and 20-somethings rather work in a small smart-tech startup or for Elon Musk at Tesla or Mark Zuckerberg at Facebook? Why tie your career dreams to a sunset industry that financial wizards like Mark Carney think is way past the possibility of producing the hydrocarbons on the asset books of multinational energy companies? Why turn yourself into a stranded asset?
While Alberta has been the beneficiary of the federal government’s worldwide hucksterism of its birthright energy sector, other provinces like B.C. have been getting on with adaptation to the emerging realities.
There is a provincial carbon tax (notably a neutral one) on all oil, gas and diesel purchases. Key cities are densifying. Urban transit is being upgraded. Citizens are walking and biking to work in larger and larger numbers. The tech sector has arrived in Vancouver to join movies, year-round tourism, global real estate investment and condo construction as new examples of economic diversity. You can sense the competitive vitality that numerous smaller economic sectors provide the Vancouver workforce. And the opportunities.
Contrast this with the prospect of hanging on in Alberta, especially for those without meaningful family roots. As someone who has looked at carbon “from both sides now” (thanks, Joni), having worked for 30 years in Alberta, and seven in B.C., I think B.C. is firmly on the “now” side of historic trends.
It reminds me of the situation my great-uncle Leighton faced when steam irrevocably replaced wind as the propulsion system for ships. He was the captain of a four-masted tea clipper, the Melanope, and in 1906 he “came ashore” in San Francisco. He always said it was the best decision he ever made.
Troy Media columnist Mike Robinson has been CEO of three Canadian NGOs: the Arctic Institute of North America, the Glenbow Museum and the Bill Reid Gallery. This commentary reprinted courtesy of Troy Media (www.troymedia.com).
