While B.C.'s seafood industry could gain from a Canada-European Union (EU) trade agreement, the jury is out on how much B.C.'s broader economy stands to gain from the deal.
The federal government is touting the agreement, which is expected to be finalized later this year, as "Canada's most significant trade initiative since the historic North American Free Trade Agreement."
According to Ottawa, key gains for B.C. will include better market access for the province through the elimination of:
•EU tariffs on Canadian fish and seafood, which average 11% and peak at 25%;
•wood export tariffs, which average 2.2% and peak at 10%; and
•tariffs on fruit, vegetables and horticultural products.
The federal government also says the deal will reduce trade barriers to Canadians wishing to sell their services into the EU market. Additionally, Ottawa argues that the deal will stimulate investment by instituting predictable investment rules.
However, Sauder School of Business professor John Ries told Business in Vancouver the deal won't be a second NAFTA in terms of job creation for B.C.
"Our products just really aren't that well-positioned to go to Europe," he said. "B.C. energy doesn't have that good access to the EU, and that's where a lot of our trade business is."
Ries said that a few industries such as seafood will see a lift.
"But in aggregate, that's not a substantial number of jobs or potential for a lot of job creation," he said. "So I don't think that it'll have a real large impact."
Sauder trade policy professor Barbara Spencer said that, given the limited information available to date, it's hard to estimate how significant the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will be for B.C.
"But CETA is likely to have important benefits," she said, identifying B.C.'s seafood industry as a key beneficiary.
She added that many benefits of the deal will be achieved in the longer term, through greater investment flowing in both directions and easier access to Europe for Canadian services providers.
"In addition to the direct value to both Canada and Europe from increased trade," she said, "the agreement represents an important opportunity for B.C. and Canada to diversify export markets so as to reduce the risk from too high a level of reliance on the U.S. market."
The Business Council of B.C. (BCBC) recently issued a statement supporting CETA.
Jock Finlayson, BCBC's executive vice-president and chief policy officer, said, "CETA would expand [B.C.'s] commercial opportunities into the huge, 27-nation EU market, which accounts for almost one-quarter of the global economy and is home to more than 500 million relatively affluent consumers."•
