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Half of decided voters favour BC NDP ahead of election day: poll

Research Co. survey finds 50% of decided voters favour BC NDP
BC NDP leader John Horgan | Credit: B.C. government

The BC NDP look to have solidified an already dominant lead over their rivals just ahead of Saturday’s election, according to a new poll of decided voters.

Research Co. survey results released Friday (October 23) show 50% of decided voters favour the BC NDP’s return to government. 

That’s up two points compared with another poll from October 8.

Support for the BC Liberals trails by 15 percentage points, with 35% of decided voters saying they’ll cast ballots for the centre-right party that previously formed government from 2001-17.

The Green Party of B.C., meanwhile, has the support of 13% of decided voters, while the BC Conservatives are at 2%.

The BC NDP is far more popular among decided women voters than the BC Liberals (52% to 31%).

That gap is significant but far less pronounced among decided male voters, with 48% saying they’re voting for the BC NDP compared with 39% voting for the BC Liberals.

There might be some wiggle room as parties look the sway minds in the last few hours of campaigning.

The survey reveals 11% of those decided voters might change their mind about which party they support.

Meanwhile, BC NDP leader John Horgan’s popularity remains high at 62% approval despite a three-point drop compared with the October 8 poll.

BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson’s approval rating remains static at 40% and BC Green party leader Sonia Furstenau has seen her popularity surge 13 points to 46% since early October.

Furstenau took over the reins of the party mere days before the snap election was called in late September.

Despite the strong support for the BC NDP in the Research Co. poll, it might be weeks before any definitive winner emerges owing to the surge in mail-in voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

As of Thursday, 478,900 vote-by-mail packages have been returned out of the 724,279 sent out to registered voters in B.C.

That’s an increase of more than 7,200% compared with the 2017 provincial election, meaning in-person results tallied on Saturday won’t necessarily offer a clear indication of which party can form government.

The results are based on online surveys conducted October 22-23, polling 750 likely voters in B.C., 705 of whom are decided.

The margin of error for likely voters is plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points and plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points for decided voters.

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