The cool-down period after an election race is a good time for a returning government to take stock of its situation.
While the BC Liberals won’t have to undertake that ritual re-examining of the province’s finances, they should examine another set of books – the one that compares B.C.’s carbon emissions to its targets, and its plans for fossil fuel exports with the global budget for carbon pollution. It’s something that B.C.’s neighbours in Oregon and Washington are starting to do too.
At a time when scientists report atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are breaking dangerous new records, the Pacific Northwest is considering a raft of ill-advised proposals to expand its carbon-intensive fuel exports. To date, the region has considered these fossil fuel projects each in isolation, an approach that makes sense no longer.
The election helped make British Columbians more aware of the controversies surrounding new oil and gas pipelines in the province. But they may be less aware of the furious debate raging south of the border, where proposals to build huge new coal export terminals in the U.S. Northwest are generating unprecedented levels of opposition.
In recent months, however, the arguments have crossed the 49th parallel.
Increasingly, Americans are worried about Canadian oilsands, as seen in national protests against the Keystone XL Pipeline and the growing unease over new tanker traffic in the Salish Sea. Just so, residents of the Lower Mainland are growing alarmed about stealthy plans to ship more U.S. thermal coal from Delta and from new facilities on the Fraser River at Surrey.
The truth is, whether we’re talking about coal trains, tankers or pipelines, all of us in the Northwest are in this together. And the stakes could not be higher.
A new analysis from Sightline Institute in Seattle finds that the region is poised to bring on line new infrastructure that could annually export fuels loaded with 761 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. That’s roughly equivalent to 157 million cars or 76 coal plants. By some estimates it’s more than 5% of the annual global carbon budget from all sources. And all of it would be additional carbon pollution, over and above the greenhouse gas emissions already produced by our region.
The Northwest is about to move from being super natural to being super dangerous to the global climate. For years, our region has prided itself on clean energy and leading environmental policy. But now, B.C., Oregon and Washington are weighing five new coal terminals, two coal terminal expansions, three oilsands pipelines and at least six new natural gas pipelines. Taken together, these projects would dwarf our region’s green aspirations.
Simply put, it is impossible to reconcile these proposed projects with what we know we need to do to avoid runaway climate change. Locking ourselves into decades of fossil fuel extraction and export is a dangerous game.
It’s a bad economic strategy too. At some point, North America will have to come to grips with its carbon problem. We will put the brakes on fossil fuel use and seize the abundant opportunities of renewable energy and efficiency.
When we do, it’s likely that the fossil fuel industry will be stuck with many costly stranded assets. The only real question is whether, when this carbon bubble bursts, public balance sheets will also be stuck with stranded assets: idled port land devoted to coal, empty bitumen pipelines and so on.
The Northwest is a vibrant, thriving region, and its future doesn’t lie down a path of ever-increasing fossil fuel exports. To ensure a soft landing when the carbon bubble bursts, we need to start planning now for a transition away from carbon-intense fossil fuels.
The returning B.C. government can start this transition by taking common sense steps toward climate responsibility. First, incorporate a consideration of climate impacts into its evaluation of the Enbridge Northern Gateway and Kinder Morgan pipeline projects.
Second, reject the port authority’s ill-conceived schemes to ship cheap U.S. thermal coal on the Fraser River.
Third, reconsider LNG export plans that will make it impossible to meet B.C.’s emission reduction targets. And finally, apply B.C.’s carbon tax not only to the fossil fuels used within the province but also to those that it exports abroad. This would send a strong signal to the overheated fossil fuel export lobby: it’s time to prepare for change.
