The 1949 Canadian federal election – the first to be held under “Pax Americana” – gave the Liberal party under Louis St. Laurent 49 per cent of the vote and 191 of the 262 seats at stake in the House of Commons. The outcome, as the final count is still underway, is not as great for the Liberals under Mark Carney in the first election held under “Pox Americana”: 44 per cent of the vote and 169 of 343 seats, as of early Wednesday.
The spectre of U.S. President Donald Trump reigned over the campaign from the start. In three consecutive polls conducted by Research Co., the proportion of likely voters who identified Canada-U.S. Relations as the most important issue facing the country ranged from 26 per cent to 31 per cent. Housing, jobs, health care and crime all took a back seat, as the ballot transformed into a referendum on who was best positioned to manage the American president. Carney consistently outranked Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on this issue (48 per cent to 34 per cent before the last week of the campaign), effectively pushing all minor parties to single digits.
The Conservatives were unable to pivot, with misguided supporters at times questioning the validity of surveys and the sanctity of the electoral process itself. The “everything is broken” argument did not yield a massive advantage when Justin Trudeau was no longer the enemy. Carney was significantly ahead of Poilievre on our approval, momentum and preferred prime minister questions.
Poilievre and his team can take solace in the fact that their vision was as equally attractive to Millennials as the one put forth by the Liberals. Still, some stalwarts of Canadian conservatism are openly wondering if separation is the answer after four consecutive electoral defeats. This would be the equivalent of a whiny child taking the soccer ball and going home after surrendering four goals in a row. The country deserves better from the people who have been chosen, by voters, to serve as His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.
Our “Exit Poll” yields fascinating results on what moved Canadian voters. Those who cast ballots for Liberal candidates were more likely to cite the leader as their main motivator (40 per cent) than those who voted for the Conservatives (30 per cent) or the New Democrats (24 per cent). In contrast, those who stood with the NDP were more likely to back the party’s ideas and policies (46 per cent) than those who endorsed Tories or Grits (33 per cent and 30 per cent respectively).
For the New Democrats and the Green Party, a new era begins with more questions than answers. Rebuilding these political institutions individually will be complicated. Last year’s British Columbia provincial election provides an example of how a party enjoying “winning conditions” can extend the hand to popular lawmakers who survived, or were expected to, under leaders that failed to connect. With the Liberals just a handful of seats away from a majority mandate, these discussions will probably intensify.
As rumours of separatism swirl in one of the two provinces that provided Brian Mulroney with massive mandates in 1984 and 1988, support for the original “sovereigntist” option dwindles. Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet leaves his artificial federal party a couple of points above the threshold for participation in future televised debates, and with 11 fewer seats than it had before the writ drop.
Finally, this should be the last federal election to feature the People’s Party of Canada. Its inability to run a full slate shows that individuals are not as willing to have their name in Wikipedia for the rest of their lives as the fifth- or sixth-place finishers in a particular riding. Leader Maxime Bernier certainly seems more interested in basking in the illusion of influence that his appearances in American podcasts have created than in facing facts and arithmetic.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 27-29, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,201 Canadians who voted in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
