Not surprisingly, the Canadian economy lost jobs in April as the pandemic’s third wave and more restrictive public health restrictions curtailed recovery momentum.
National employment fell by about 207,100 persons (1.1%) in the latest month with the unemployment rate at 8.1% compared with 7.5% in March. The latest employment rollback was driven by Ontario (down 2.1%) and B.C. (down 1.6%) and retraced about two-thirds of the March gain. With April’s pullback, the employment gap from February 2020 widened to 2.6% from 1.5% in March as restriction-sensitive sectors shed jobs. That said, concentration of job losses and experiences from previous COVID-19 waves suggest a vigorous bounceback once the current wave is under control.
B.C.’s “circuit breaker” paused indoor restaurant dining, cancelled group fitness classes and closed the Whistler Blackcomb resort among other measures to end 11 straight months of hiring growth. Employment fell 1.6% or 43,100 persons. After popping above pre-pandemic levels in March, levels rolled back 0.9% below February 2020. Nevertheless, B.C. remains in a relatively good shape; only Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are in better relative shape.
The unemployment rate rose from 6.9% in March to 7.1%, compared with 5.1% in February 2020.
Accommodations/food services employment declined by 21,900 persons or 12.3%, while information/culture/recreation shed 16,900 workers (12.8%). Employment also declined in construction (1.9%), wholesale/retail trade (1.1%).
While headline employment is resilient, the K-shaped recovery in the labour market persists. Higher employment has reflected strong demand in health care, professional services and technology, public services and resources. In contrast, hospitality/tourism, retailers and transportation-related sectors continue to struggle.
Given the quickening pace of vaccines, expect employment to pick up more quickly in June.
As expected, B.C. international goods exports fell back in March due to the reversal of February’s natural-gas price surge, while other temporary supply-side bottlenecks weighed. Year-over-year growth in goods exports reached $4.35 billion. While a robust 17% higher than a year ago, this compared with a 33% gain the previous month. Based on our calculations, seasonally adjusted monthly exports fell 8.1%. Through the first quarter, sales rose 22%. •
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
