(This story was corrected to reflect the fact that, though not specifically identified, the George Massey Tunnel replacement project is referenced in the throne speech.)
B.C. Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon read out a Liberal throne speech Thursday June 22 that promises billions in new spending, thanks to a higher than expected surplus, and cribs heavily from the NDP playbook.
BC NDP Leader John Horgan will now be in the awkward position of having to argue against increasing welfare rates, banning union and corporate donations, spending $1 billion on new child-care spaces and boosting spending on electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
"The May election delivered a divided result," Guichon said. "The government has listened to that result and brings forward this agenda to gain this house's confidence."
As expected, the throne speech was filled with Liberal concessions in the form of pledges that were not in the Liberal election campaign platform. The Liberals had been releasing beta versions in the days leading up to the throne speech.
The concessions include:
•a new rent-to-own scheme to help 50,000 renters become homeowners;
•$1 billion in new spending to create 60,000 additional new child care spaces;
•a $5 hike to the carbon tax starting in 2019, offset with a decrease to PST;
•a $100 per month increase to welfare rates;
•banning corporate and union donations;
•a referendum on electoral reform;
•abandoning the need for a referendum on any new TransLink levies;
•$50 million in additional spending for new electric vehicle charging stations.
The throne speech also promises to scrap tolls on the Port Mann Bridge and work with TransLink to eliminate them on the Golden Ears bridge. The throne speech includes an NDP pledge to move fixed election dates from May to the fall.
Without specifically mentioning the $3.5 billion Massey Tunnel replacement bridge, the speech talks about an "expanded crossing" between Richmond and Delta and listening to concerns about the project "to move this project forward.
Transit commitments include immediate action on the Broadway corridor line and Surrey Light Rail Transit proposal, and longer-term commitments to exploring transit and light rail connections between the Lower Mainland and North Shore, and even light rail for southern Vancouver Island.
“With today’s throne speech, all provincial political parties are now acknowledging the importance and urgency of Metro Vancouver’s transit needs, but it’s disappointing there was no commitment to match the 40% funding for the mayors’ full 10-Year Vision as promised by the BC NDP and Greens,” Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson said in a press release.
“Removing the referendum requirement for funding transit investment will avoid the pointless and costly delays we’ve seen in the past, but we need immediate action.”
As for paying for some of the promises, the Liberals say the surplus that was anticipated will be higher than expected.
"Your government worked diligently to create jobs and economic growth in the province," Guichon said. "And thanks to that effort, your government will confirm a higher than expected surplus at public accounts in July.
"This unanticipated surplus provides reason to consider moving our fixed election date to the fall to ensure British Columbians are fully informed on our province's fiscal position before a general election."
The most significant policy change is on child care – a $1 billion commitment that would build out new child-care spaces on a faster timetable than what the NDP promised.
"Your government has listened to the call of families and employers to move further on child care and early childhood education," Guichon said.
In endorsing so many NDP policies, Premier Christy Clark has made herself "a hostage to fortune," said University of BC political science professor Richard Johnston. In opposition, she may find it embarrassing to oppose policies she is now endorsing in the throne speech.
Ultimately, Johnston said the throne speech marks a fundamental shift toward policies that are most important to Lower Mainlanders: housing and child-care costs, addictions treatment and public transit.
"What they've done, basically, is they've massively adjusted the urban agenda," he said. "The big changes are on the urban agenda, even to the point – I thought this was hilarious – the addictions centre in Surrey, of all places."
He referred to a pledge to build a new centre for mental health and addictions centre in Surrey, where the Liberals were nearly wiped out in the May 9 election.
Following the appointment of Liberal MLA Steve Thomson as Speaker, Horgan said he hoped Thomson would stay on as Speaker and slammed Clark for trying to embarrass the NDP by suddenly promising what are essentially NDP policies that the NDP will be obliged to vote against in order to defeat the government.
“If she wants to spend the next week trying to embarrass me, I give her her last days to do that,” Horgan said. “If that’s her legacy, fine with me.”
BC Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver has said he could support the Liberals’ plan to ban corporate and union donations. He has also said he would not be supporting an NDP bill to eliminate the secret ballot for union certification votes.
But, ultimately, Weaver and Horgan will have to vote against the throne speech – no matter how much of their own policies it contains – to bring the Clark government down so that the NDP – backed by a formal agreement with the Greens – can ask the lieutenant governor to let the NDP form the government.
The throne speech contains enough key Liberals policies, however, that the NDP and Greens can justify voting against it. It does not back down on two key infrastructure projects: Site C dam and the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
Pundits have predicted that Clark would use the throne speech, not as a road map for governing, but as a draft of the Liberals’ next election platform. With such a slender plurality of seats, the NDP-Green alliance is fragile, so there is the possibility of a snap election within months.
Former attorney general Geoff Plant recently opined that he thinks Guichon will determine that the alliance between the Greens and NDP is not solid enough to command the confidence of the house and call an election in July.
"I disagree," Johnston said. "It is not the business of the lieutenant governor to make those kinds of judgments unless the parliamentary situation reveals that they are inescapable.
"Forty-four of the 87 members of the legislature have indicated a willingness to proceed. I think she has to respect that. I think that if she doesn't do that, she will be exposing the office to massive opprobrium."
But even if Guichon gives the NDP the go-ahead to form government, it may not last long. Minority governments can last a full term, but when they are this close (44 seats to 43), they tend to behave like an unstable isotope – they can decay rather quickly.
The last minority government in B.C. (Social Credit 19 seats, NDP 18) lasted one year – from 1952 to 1953.
Debate on the throne speech is scheduled to begin on June 26, with the critical non-confidence vote expected between then and June 29.
Once that happens, Horgan can approach the lieutenant governor and formally ask her to allow the NDP to form the government.
