Canadian traders are putting their money on the NDP squeaking out a victory in the upcoming federal election.
The University of British Columbia Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets, a not-for-profit academic research tool that allows any Canadian 19 years or older to put up to $1,000 on who they think will win the October 19 election, has the left-leaning party out front.
As of August 18, the NDP is sitting at 31.7%, the Conservatives at 29.9% and the Liberals at 26.8%.
UBC associate professor Werner Antweiler, who developed the online market, said the game changes when people are asked to pick winners instead of follow their hearts.
“Things are a bit different when people have money at stake,” Antweiler said.
“They tend to put their money where their mouth is, so they might be more inclined to vote for who they think will win rather than who they want to win, and in a way that can be a lot more truthful in some respects.”
Antweiler has been running the Prediction Markets since 1993, and said the last provincial election, in which the BC Liberal government was voted back into power contrary to many polls leading up to the election, threw his traders for a loop.
“I think the traders got duped by a lot of the polls, much like everyone did,” he said. “And I think that’s what we’re seeing with polling these days, the markets are very forward-looking, whereas polling can be more backwards-looking and might not take into account momentum leading right up to election day.
“So the markets can react quicker at times.”
