British Columbians are set to decide on whether to stand pat on our first-past-the-post voting system or select one of three electoral reform proposals, two of which have never been implemented anywhere else in the world.
Those three proportional representation systems are featured on mail-in referendum ballots that started arriving at doors Monday. Citizens will have until Nov. 30 to mail them back, free of charge, to Elections BC, an independent office of the B.C. Legislature.
During this time two regulated groups will stir public debate, acting as proponents (Vote PR BC) and opponents (No BC Proportional Representation Society) of change. Third-party groups are limited to $200,000 in expenses and must be registered to advertise (including paid or “sponsored” social media content).
First Past The Post (FPTP)
Presently, B.C., Canada, the United Kingdom and United States vote using FPTP, generally described as the simplest electoral system whereby you check one candidate on a ballot and the candidate with the most votes in a small, local riding wins a seat in the Legislature.
However, FPTP often results in disproportionate, single-party power arrangements from a small pool (typically two) of large parties. On the other hand, proportional representation (PR) systems have larger ridings and result in more parties, with two or more typically reaching power-sharing agreements (coalition governments).
The mail-in ballot will first ask residents if they prefer FPTP or PR. If a majority choose PR, a new system could be chosen based on how citizens rank three PR systems — two of which are uniquely crafted for B.C. — chosen by the B.C Attorney General’s office:
Dual Member Proportional (DMP)
Mathematician Sean Graham from University of Alberta conceived Dual Member Proportional. Under DMP most districts (ridings) will double up to become one represented by two MLAs. Voters will only check one box that includes two candidates from any given party (No.1 and No.2). As in FPTP, the No. 1 candidate with the most votes wins the first seat. Meanwhile, the No.2 candidate will be chosen by a process of elimination to meet proportionality to the province-wide vote. A yet-to-be-determined number of rural (northern) ridings will not change and maintain the one-candidate FPTP system.
Mixed Member Proportional (MMP)
Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) is used in Germany, New Zealand and Scotland. Under MMP, there will be fewer, larger districts represented by one MLA using FPTP. Several districts are then grouped together to form regions, which will be represented by several MLAs chosen from a party list. Regional MLAs are chosen by a mathematical formula to match proportionality to the province-wide vote. It is to be determined if voters will simply choose one candidate (which counts for the party too) or choose a candidate and a party (additionally, voters may be able to rank candidates in an “open” list). Notably, a minimum 60 % of MLAs will be from districts chosen by FPTP.
Rural-Urban Proportional (RUP)
A third system called Rural-Urban Proportional (RUP) is a newly proposed hybrid system likened to one devised by former chief electoral officer for Canada Jean-Pierre Kingsley, who wanted to reach proportionality while maintaining local MLAs in rural ridings.
Devised by Fair Vote Canada, RUP will use MMP for rural districts/regions and Single Transferable Vote (STV) for newly drawn urban districts, which will be the largest under any proposed system.
STV is used in Ireland and Australia.
Under STV, voters rank at least one, or several, of the candidates on the ballot. Based on how many votes are cast, an MLA is elected once they receives enough votes; to fill the 2-7 seats, MLAs will be elected by receiving secondary votes that are transferred by a process of elimination.
Regional MLAs under MMP will help reach proportionality.
Post referendum if PR is chosen
In all three PR systems, a party will need 5 % of the province-wide vote to qualify for regional MLAs. An all-party legislative committee will determine things such as open/closed lists and the exact number of regional MLAs. The independent Electoral Boundaries Commission will determine the size of districts and regions. Each system could see the number of MLAs go up from 87 to up to 95.
Should voters choose PR by mail-in ballot, Elections BC says it will need up to 14 months to implement changes. Attorney General David Eby told Glacier Media he would table legislation by February to have the new system in place by the scheduled fall 2021 election. Eby will also legislate a referendum after two elections that will ask if people want to back to traditional FPTP.
2018 marks a familiar but new path to PR
This will be the province’s third kick at the can for PR in 13 years. In 2005 British Columbians voted 57 % in favour of STV but then premier Gordon Campbell rejected the results for not meeting a 60 % threshold of voter acceptance. A second referendum in 2009 saw citizens sour to the concept.
At the root of prior referendums was concern for how Legislature seats are determined — often being somewhat or vastly disproportionate to the total vote count. For instance, in 1996, the BC NDP lost the popular vote to the BC Liberals but won a majority of seats. Yet in 2001 the pendulum shifted to the Liberals, who garnered 77 of 79 seats with only 57 % of the popular vote.
This year’s referendum is a result of campaign promises made by the NDP and BC Green Party, both of which proposed electoral reform in their 2017 election platforms and subsequently included it in their Cooperation and Supply Agreement (CASA) that forms an NDP minority government.
But instead of forming a citizens’ assembly, as in 2004, to determine one proposed system, Eby conducted online consultations to proceed with three PR proposals.
“The goal was to determine, through public consultation, what values British Columbians wanted to see in a proposed voting system,” said Eby, who likens the referendum choices to a citizens’ assembly.
This referendum has no minimum vote threshold and government can accept a new PR system with a 50 % plus one vote.
In 2016, Prince Edward Island held a similar referendum and voted 52.4 % in favour of PR, however with only a 36 % turnout, Premier Wade MacLauchlan decided not to proceed with reform.
