While Americans are often prone to pendulum swings when picking presidents, immigration policies may not be in for a major shake-up.
Ottawa revealed in late October plans to bring in 1.2 million immigrants over the next three years to address labour shortages and boost the economy.
That same day, Stephen Miller, a senior adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, told NBC News a second Trump administration would expand its controversial travel ban, introducing new limits on work visas, limiting asylum grants and outlawing “sanctuary cities” – municipalities that offer assistance to undocumented immigrants.
Meanwhile, American media reports the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden plans for sweeping changes to Trump era policies.
The two countries are on divergent paths, and Trump’s administration policies have worked to Canada’s advantages over the past four years amid an ongoing global shortage of STEM talent (science, technology, engineering and math), according to Dick Burke, president and CEO of Chicago-based immigration services firm Envoy Global Inc.
“Canada’s policies are smarter, more hospitable, more attractive than America’s,” he said, “and that advantage is not going to be completely lost, regardless of who assumes the presidency in the United States.”
Just before the pandemic, Envoy Global surveyed U.S. employers and found 51% were considering Canada for expansion plans – up from 38% a year earlier.
Overall, 74% of respondents found Canada’s immigration policies more favourable to that of the U.S., jumping 11 percentage points from a year ago when 65% felt that way.
Ongoing changes to the American H-1B visa program for skilled immigrants have also made it more challenging for companies to bring talent into the U.S.
But skilled immigrants who can’t work in the U.S. have found a landing spot in Canada as American tech giants such as Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq:AMZN) and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT) continue to expand in Vancouver.
Envoy Global pointed to initiatives such as Ottawa’s Global Talent Stream – a program that launched in June 2017 to ease domestic talent shortages – as an example of Canada’s more progressive immigration strategy.
Instead of making companies in need of specific talent complete a labour market impact assessment – often described as onerous by employers – the program promises to process 80% of work permit applications within 10 business days.
Since then, a steady stream of international workers has been flowing into cities like Vancouver as American firms find themselves recruiting international talent and basing those workers in Canada.
“It is debatable to what extent this directly affects the Canadian outlook, but if [Joe] Biden undoes some of Trump’s policies, it could be more challenging for Canada to hit its new, higher targets post-COVID, and/or to retain talent that would otherwise be moving south,” economists at BMO said in a note to investors immediately following election night.
“Note that the strongest years for non-permanent resident inflows to Canada were 2017 and 2018, with at least two forces at work – a more open Canadian immigration policy at the same time that U.S. was closing the doors. A Biden win could shift the balance back at least somewhat, even if takes a while given the pandemic realities.”
Bruce Harwood, an immigration lawyer at Vancouver’s Boughton Law Corp., said he’s observed a “significant increase” over the past few months from Americans interested in moving to Canada.
He added that the same was not true leading up to the results of the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
The pandemic has temporarily stopped cross-border tourism into Canada, but certain exemptions allow Americans into the country.
Work permits and student permits are still being processed, and Harwood said clients have resumed efforts to bring skilled workers into Canada since May following an initial slowdown at the outset of the pandemic.
While Burke said the perception among employers is that Biden would adopt more progressive immigration policies, Harwood does not believe Canada’s competitive advantages would evaporate with Biden becoming the next American president.
“You’ve got to remember the United States does not have an aggressive immigration policy like Canada or Australia and New Zealand,” Harwood said.
“And I don’t think under Biden that would change significantly.
