International goods trade in B.C. shone through April as resource sector demand and high commodity prices supported elevated exports and imports.
Dollar-volume exports surged 35% year over year to $4.03 billion after decelerating in March. While a portion of this gain reflects base-year effects as exports declined sharply last April when the pandemic brought global economic activity to a standstill, export trends were firm. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we calculate that exports rose 3.5% from March to extend the positive trend observed since mid-2020.
Levels are trending at the highest level since the second half of 2018 and 20% above pre-pandemic February. Nationally, exports fell 1% from March as semiconductor shortages chipped away at broader manufacturing associated with motor vehicles and related goods.
B.C. export growth momentum continues to be supported by gains in resource-sector oriented sales. Forestry exports were 72% higher compared with a year ago, while exports of metals and minerals and mining products rose more than 40%. Higher demand due to a growing global economy and rapid commodity price growth, particularly in the forestry sector, has driven the upshift. Industrial product price indexes highlight the latter as lumber and wood product prices are up nearly 90% from a year ago, while metal products rose 30%, suggesting much of topline gains from higher prices. Meanwhile, industrial machinery and equipment and electronics exports also gained traction after recent weakness, suggesting broader gains as the global economy expands.
With the latest increase, year-to-date exports rose 24% on a 56% increase in wood products and 41% gain in metallic and non-metallic mineral product exports.
Import flow rose 28% year over year but eased compared with March. Year to date, imports were up nearly 12% on large gains in consumer goods (20%), machinery and industrial products and raw metals and minerals. In part these gains are facilitating export growth in exports.
Pandemic base-year effects are inflating year-over-year gains of both year-to-date exports and imports.
Trade flows are likely to remain elevated as the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, although supply chain disruptions remain a threat. •
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
