Vancouver’s economic growth will accelerate to 2.9% this year from 2.5% in 2012, according to a Conference Board of Canada projection released this morning.
The report, Metropolitan Outlook-Winter 2013, forecasts that Vancouver’s growth will average 3% annually through 2016. It assesses, however, that Vancouver’s residential construction will slow this year and in 2014, due to a “slightly overbuilt” market in the city’s census metropolitan area.
The board projects that Abbotsford-Mission’s GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 2.7% in 2013 and 2014, following a 5.3% population jump last year.
Nationally, the report forecasts that Saskatoon and Regina will be the fastest growing metropolitan economies in Canada this year, at 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively.
The report found that both prairie frontrunners attracted record numbers of newcomers last year.
“Migration is arguably one of the greatest success stories for these cities, with more and more Canadians choosing to call them home,” said Mario Lefebvre, director of the Conference Board’s Centre for Municipal Studies.
Next door to B.C., Calgary is expected to maintain its current 3.3% GDP growth rate, while Edmonton is expected to slow to 3.2% from 4.4% in 2012.
The report, however, notes risks hovering over Albertan cities’ growth forecasts. It assesses that uncertainly in the energy sector including a “bitumen bubble”– the discount between Alberta’s oil and world prices – and lower natural gas prices could hamper Calgary’s growth. The report adds that, if pipeline projects don’t go forward to meet rising oil sands production, Edmonton’s medium-term growth outlook could similarly be reduced.
Look out for more on the “bitumen bubble” in an upcoming issue of Business in Vancouver.
