Real gross domestic product in Vancouver is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2013 – 0.4 percentage points lower than 2012's increase of 2.6% – according to a September 27 Conference Board of Canada report.
Economic Insights into 13 Canadian Metropolitan Economies states that a widespread slowdown is expected in Vancouver for 2013 overall, driven in part by slower growth in manufacturing and construction activity.
Housing starts in 2013 are projected to be 17,293 – a 9% drop from 2012's total of 19,027.
Not all news is grim, however.
"Although housing starts are set to fall this year, Vancouver's resale housing market appears to be on the upswing," the report reads. "This is expected to boost output growth in the finance, insurance and real estate sector to 3.2%.
"All in all, total services sector output is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2013."
Output in the services sector is projected to improve by 3% per year from 2014-17, and overall unemployment is expected to drop from 6.7% in 2012 to 6.5% by the end of 2013.
Provincially, private sector investment is projected to fall for the remainder of the year, due to a contraction on private structures spending in the construction industry. In addition, housing starts are expected to drop by 5.9% in 2013.
Other factors expected to affect British Columbia's economy include:
- the commencement of work on the province's share of the federal shipbuilding program will contribute to a boost in real output in the province's manufacturing sector by 5.2% in 2014;
- rising oil and natural gas prices will drive an increase in drilling activity, leading to an anticipated 10.6% growth in support activities for the mining and oil and gas extraction sectors in 2013 and a further 7.1% in 2014; and
- if liquefied natural gas plants are not built, depressed natural gas prices could result, slowing development of the province's resources.
