Although the first effort to establish a stable pro-basketball team in Vancouver resulted in an air ball, a new study argues the city could actually support the return of the National Basketball Association (NBA) sometime in the next 20 years.
The findings from the Conference Board of Canada come on the heels of the Toronto Raptors’ June 9 announcement Vancouver would host a pre-season game in October.
Conference Board of Canada’s chief economist Glen Hodgson, who co-authored the report, said two key factors point to Vancouver’s ability to support the NBA’s return.
The city’s projected population growth — the region is expected to reach 3.4 million residents by 2041, according to Metro Vancouver data — and the higher worth of the Canadian dollar make it much more economically viable, according to Hodgson.
He examined the conditions needed for a successful franchise based on market size, corporate presence, economic conditions, salary caps, ownership strength and playing facilities, among other factors.
“The Grizzlies left and people were kind of turned off from that at the time, so you have to rebuild the interest in the sport,” Hodgson said. “Having the right owner will make the difference.”
Norm O’Reilly, a sports business professor at Ohio University, said a very small proportion of owners buy teams for financial benefits.
If the potential owner is based outside of the city, he said, he or she is likely buying a team because of a passion for basketball. If they are a Vancouverite, they may be purchasing the team to raise their profile or give back to the community.
O’Reilly added Vancouver makes for a very attractive market since there is already an arena built downtown and any NBA team would be joining as the second tenant.
He said the likelihood of Vancouver landing an NBA franchise is the next 20 years is about 60%.
O’Reilly noted the potential for expansion is low right now, but some NBA teams are struggling financially and there is the possibility one of them could move to a different city.
Former NBA commissioner David Stern said on the Bill Simmons podcast in 2011 he regretted how the relocation situation played out with the Vancouver Grizzlies. He added there has been interest from other parties over the years in returning the NBA to the city.
The expansion team arrived on the West Coast in 1995 before moving to Memphis following the 2000-2001 season.
It came at time when the Canadian dollar was worth about USD 0.63, average per game attendance was less than 14,000 and the team posted just 23 wins in its final season.
But in 2012, Stern nixed the idea of introducing another expansion team into the league. He pointed out the NBA already had 30 teams and there likely wasn’t room for more.
There have, however, been a number of relocations within the NBA since the Grizzlies moved to Memphis.
Teams have relocated to Oklahoma City, New Orleans and New York City's Brooklyn borough, and there was also a concerted effort to move the Sacramento Kings to Seattle.
Hodgson said the new NBA commissioner, Adam Silver, might take a different approach than his predecessor.
“The NBA has been much more willing (than the NHL) to let franchises move,” he said, adding it’s unlikely the league would consider setting up a team in another part of Canada.
“There’s only two cities (Toronto and Vancouver) that have the right kind of diverse fanbase for NBA basketball.”
But Hodgson said he does not believe Vancouver could support a second NHL team.
“You have two teams competing in a market of 3.5 million people 20 years from now, that’s…kind of cannibalizing each other,” he said. “Whereas adding another sport, you add another slice of the fanbase.”
Vancouver Canucks and Rogers Arena co-owner Francesco Aquilini said in 2011 he might be willing to took a serious look at bringing the NBA back to the city sometime in the future.
He noted the arena’s floors, hoops and seats are “ready to plug and play” without any new capital investment.
But Aquilini also said he wouldn’t want to jeopardize the success of the hockey franchise with added competition
The October game in Vancouver will be the second time the Raptors have visited Rogers Arena for a pre-season visit since the Grizzlies left.
NBA Canada vice-president Dan MacKenzie said in a statement there has been a huge growth in the number of Canadians playing at a high level in the league.
The Raptors are also playing in Montreal this fall.
The study appeared in the book Power Play: The Business Economics of Pro Sports, published in March 2014.
With a file from Glen Korstrom
