Political promises made at the United Nations climate conference in Paris (COP21) are one thing; the realities of energy demand and regional economies are another.
COP21 has raised hopes of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, increasing global energy efficiency and mapping out a road to a greener future for the planet, but it has little hope of altering the realities of rising energy demands in a world where an estimated 1.2 billion people still don’t have electricity.
There is much text to fine-tune and many points of contention to resolve following what has been hailed by some as a groundbreaking pact involving close to 200 countries aimed at confronting climate change complexities.
But the post-COP21 framework will remain just that: a framework of goals, not legally binding requirements, that will need an unprecedented cohesion of political will to move it beyond public relations.
Meanwhile, back in a global energy market that’s driven by economics and the desire of emerging nations to achieve the same standard of living as their developed counterparts, the appetite for power will continue to grow.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2015, electricity demand will jump 70% by 2040, and while the IEA predicts that by then renewable energy will overtake coal as the world’s largest generator of electricity, it will still account for only 30% of electricity generation in China, currently the world’s biggest carbon dioxide emitter.
Coal represents around 30% of the world’s primary energy sources but accounts for roughly 46% of global carbon emissions, and there is little evidence that its use for generating power will slow any time soon.
The reality for Canada post-Paris is that its actions will make little difference in reducing global CO2 emissions if countries with rapidly growing energy-intensive industrial production that have large domestic coal reserves can’t be convinced through economic incentives or legal requirements to develop other sources of energy to drive that production.
