In the world of data, reflecting on what the past year has brought and what the coming year might bring often happens well after the final notes of Auld Lang Syne have been sung. Now that we have some year-end data available for 2013, what does it tell us about the year that was?
Well, for starters, the year ended on a negative note for interprovincial migration. We have spent the last seven quarters lamenting the fact that more people have been moving from B.C. to other parts of Canada than are coming west.
This is the longest stretch of net interprovincial migration losses B.C. has seen since the late 1990s.
Since January 2012, B.C. has experienced a net loss of more than 10,000 residents to other provinces, most notably our closest neighbour, Alberta.
One of the driving factors to this outflow was the pull of a strong Alberta economy: over the past year the Alberta economy expanded at three times the national rate (3%, versus 1% nationally) as more than 61,000 jobs were added to Wild Rose Country. The push of a weak B.C. economy was also a culprit: in the face of employment growth next door, B.C. lost almost 4,500 jobs through 2013 as provincewide employment fell by 0.2%.
Outside of the Great Recession of 2008, when employment in all provinces declined, we again have to look back to the late 1990s and early 2000s to find years when total employment in B.C. declined.
While on the surface a provincial unemployment rate that continues to decline (down to 6.6% in 2013) can be pointed to as a bright light, in this instance it indicates that people are either moving to other provinces for work or remaining at home and out of the labour force at a greater rate than the decline in the number of jobs.
Although some regions in the province saw job growth through 2013 – Vancouver Island/Coast (0.5%; +1,900 jobs), Lower Mainland (0.1%; +2,100), Kootenay (4.1%; + 3,100) and North Coast (1.5%; +600) – this growth was more than offset by declines in the Thompson Okanagan (-2.9%; -7,500), the Cariboo (-4.6%; -3,900) and the Northeast (-2.0%; -800).
On the bright side, total international merchandise exports from B.C. increased 6% last year (January through November 2013) as a total of $31.24 billion in goods was exported from the province to other countries. Of particular note were the forestry-based sectors: in addition to the value of our exports from sawmills and wood preservation rising above the value of our coal exports ($5.17 billion versus $4.13 billion), other forestry-related industries grew, including veneer and plywood (+31%) and logging (+29%).
Apart from the 18% decline in the value of international exports of coal, exports from the mining, oil and gas sector also grew.
The value of oil and gas extraction exports jumped 36%, exports from petroleum refineries were up 29% and exports of copper, nickel, lead, zinc and other metals increased 26%.
Even the value of exports from many of B.C.’s manufacturing sectors grew, including electrical equipment (+31%) and aerospace (+25%) exports.
If the destinations for these exports are considered, there’s more bright light on the horizon.
The greatest relative increase in B.C.’s international goods exports – although admittedly from a relatively small base of $452 million between January and November 2013 – was the 41% growth in the value of exports to India.
With a population of 1.25 billion today, and an additional 254 million people expected over the next two decades, India represents a significant growth market for B.C.’s exports.
As might be expected, China, with the second-fastest year-over-year growth in the value of B.C.’s exports, was also near the top of the list.
Increasing by 18% through 2013, B.C. exported more than $6.05 billion to China last year.
But perhaps the brightest light was the 12% increase in exports to the United States. With 46%, or $14.5 billion, of our international merchandise exports going south of the 49th parallel, a recovering U.S. economy will continue to represent an important export market for the province in the year to come and will be a key factor in the province’s recovery from this recent period when it seemed to be just muddling along. •
