When considering the economic data for 2013 and the years leading up to it several interesting trends emerge that set B.C. apart from the rest of Canada.
For example, while B.C.’s unemployment rate increased to 7.7% in 2009, it has since fallen to 6.6% (in 2013). Over the same period the national unemployment rate also fell: to 7.1% from 8.3%. Although B.C.’s unemployment rate remained steady between 2012 and 2013, overall employment in the province declined over the past year. While this decline was relatively small (0.2% or 4,400 fewer jobs), it represents movement in a direction that is opposite to general perceptions in the province, as well to the trends being experienced by many of B.C.’s provincial counterparts.
If we consider where the job losses have been, the longer-term trends show declines in the primary sector (a 9% drop since 1996) and in manufacturing (a 16% drop). If the most recent decline in employment is considered (2012-13), significant losses in the manufacturing sector – down by 15,700 jobs – reflect longer-term structural patterns of change; the 15,000 jobs lost in the health, education, and cultural services sector does not.
Just as various sectors of the B.C. economy have changed at different rates, recent history shows the great diversity of economic circumstances within the province. As one example, the most significant employment growth in the province since 2008 has been in – get ready for it – the Kootenays. Over the past five years the region’s employment has expanded by 9.7%, or almost 7,000 jobs. Even over the past year, the 4% growth in the Kootenays’ employment was double that seen in the North Coast (2% growth) or in the Lower Mainland (1%). At the other end of the spectrum are the North Coast and Vancouver Island. While the North Coast/Nechako region saw the greatest relative decline (3.9%), the Vancouver Island/Coast region’s loss of 5,600 jobs since 2008 represents the most significant absolute decline.
In looking forward for 2014 and beyond, current assessments expect a brightening outlook for B.C. and its regional economies. On the heels of an expected 1.4% growth in B.C.’s real GDP for 2013, the BC Economic Forecast Council anticipates 2.3% growth this year and an additional 2.7% growth in 2015.•
Andrew Ramlo ([email protected]) is executive director at Urban Futures Inc.
