In the national tug-of-war for talent, Beautiful British Columbia has lost its destination status. For the first time in nearly a decade, B.C.'s interprovincial migration gains have melted into losses.
According to Statistics Canada, B.C.'s migrant gains dropped from 15,000 in the 12 months ending in June 2007 to just 190 in the year ending in June 2011. In the three months to September 30, 2011, the most recent data available, B.C. recorded a net outflow of 723 British Columbians seeking opportunities elsewhere. Elsewhere, mostly, is Alberta.
It attracted nearly half of B.C.'s migrant outflow last year, and experts are predicting that trend to continue.
"I think the real problem [for B.C.] is the overheating economy in Alberta," said Kathleen Day, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa and co-author of Interregional Migration and Public Policy in Canada. She said that for now, Saskatchewan is the only province that comes close to keeping up with Alberta for wages and employment rates. B.C., on the other hand, sits in fifth place for wages and fourth for unemployment among Canadian provinces.
"It may be a little premature to call B.C. a have-not province, since it is still doing relatively well compared to most of the other provinces," she said. "But if the disparities continue to widen between Alberta and Saskatchewan on the one hand, and the rest of the country on the other, all the other provinces may turn into have-not provinces."
Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president for the Business Council of BC (BCBC), said the council has been monitoring the trend of B.C.'s declining attraction for Canadian migrants.
"It may have important economic implications if it persists," he said, adding that the Lower Mainland's high housing might be a key factor driving the trend.
Ian Cook is the director of research and learning with BC Human Resources Management Association, which represents 5,000 of the province's HR professionals.
Cook said B.C. salaries are generally similar to those across Canada but fail to offset the Lower Mainland's high cost of living – particularly housing.
"You have to make a really good lifestyle case for coming to live in Vancouver [to recruit to B.C.]," he said. "And it is a fantastic lifestyle. But I can fly in and fly out from Alberta and make a lot more money [relative to the cost of living]."
Last year, Business in Vancouver examined how the gap between Vancouver's salaries and housing prices have hurt recruiting efforts. (See "Home truths hurt talent search" – issue 1127, May 31-June 6, 2011.)
Cook said another challenge for B.C. is that most of the province's economic and job growth is in rural B.C., which might not be attractive to B.C. job-seekers.
"It's not like I'm making a choice to go to Vancouver or go to Calgary; I'm making a choice to go to Fort St. John or Prince George [or Calgary]."
Cook said it's unclear, from an HR perspective, if the gap between opportunities in B.C. and Alberta has widened over the past few years. But he said that as recession and economic uncertainty have persisted, Canadians have increasingly focused on the financial logic of their decisions.
"Everybody's way more aware of the dollar in their pocket in the times we live in," he said.
While StatsCan didn't provide a breakdown of the age and skills groups of the migrants leaving B.C., StatsCan demographer André Lebel said it's reasonable to assume that mobile workers would largely be young.
Cook said that, from what he's seen, Alberta's resource projects are drawing B.C.'s engineering and tradespeople, while Calgary's head office jobs are luring B.C.'s young professionals.
"We have a number of our members who are early-stage professionals; they've maybe spent 12 months in B.C. trying to find a job; the jobs all say, 'Need five years of experience,'" he said. "These are fantastic folks, but they're fresh out of college so [they think] 'OK, I need a job, I need to get my feet in, I'm very, very mobile, and Calgary's not that far away.'"
He said the limited number of major employers and head offices in B.C. means there are fewer entry-level corporate jobs and more challenges for new university graduates.
B.C. might not be attracting net gains of Canadian migrants, but it's maintaining a steady inflow of immigrants – the largest factor driving up its overall population. Last year, the province received 38,552 immigrants, down somewhat from 43,871 the year before.
Cook pitches the immigrant labour force as a key resource for employers – particularly given the fickle flows of Canadian labour. He said as B.C.'s Interior grapples with a skills shortage, employers are exploring how to hire immigrants – and turning to organizations such as the Immigrant Employment Council of BC for help.
"In the past it was the BC Hydros of this world had gotten on top of that," he said. "Now it's the small to medium-sized enterprises where that's their solution."
Cook is also pitching the aboriginal labour force as solution for B.C. employers – particularly to fill skills shortages in remote communities.
"There seems to be an appetite on both sides," he said. "Also, the aboriginal community often live where the work need is; you're not trying to shoehorn a UBC graduate from his cozy pad in Kitsilano to go buy a house in Prince George." •
