BC's labour market pulse quickened in June as it bucked the national decline with a modest employment uptick. Employment rose 0.3% from May to a seasonally adjusted 2.326 million persons, compared with a 0.1% decline nationwide. Provincial unemployment rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2% of the labour force.
While top-line employment gains were solid, the details were mixed. Growth was largely concentrated in the part-time sector (0.8%), which dwarfed a marginal increase in full-time employment. Females aged 25 and above were beneficiaries of nearly all of the gain, as males in the same age group received only a sliver of the pie, and youth employment fell.
This is likely a reflection of the industry performance as jobs were shed in most goods-producing sectors (-2.2%), particularly agriculture, resource extraction and utilities. In contrast, service-sector employment increased 0.9% to drive all net gains. The most significant gainers were transport/warehousing, finance/insurance/real estate and professional services, while education, business services and health recorded partially offsetting declines.
B.C.'s performance was more favourable than that of most other provinces in June, but not much cause for celebration. This was the first gain since March, and year-over-year growth was still paltry at 0.4%, which is in line with the national gain but pales in comparison with our Prairie neighbours. Across the national landscape, there is a clear demarcation between the strong labour market in Alberta and Saskatchewan and the market everywhere else. B.C. is among the latter.
Unemployment in B.C. has crept higher in recent months but remains relatively low near 6% and has trended lower in recent years from recessionary highs of around 8% in 2009. While the lower-trending jobless rate seems to indicate a tighter labour market, the employment rate – the percentage of people 15 and over working for pay – says otherwise. It has dropped to below 60% – the lowest since 2002.
Given the evolution of the labour market, we are paring back our employment growth forecast. Year-to-date growth is trending at about 0.5%, led by the Lower Mainland and some northern regions. While we expect to see some uplift going forward, annual growth is now forecast to average 0.8% – down from our previous forecast of about 1% – and follows a year of no gain in 2013.
